Saturday, February 9, 2008

"A Political Corespondent's Dream"... Democrats' Nightmare?

Tonight during CNN's "Election Center" coverage of the Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska, and Kansas primary and caucuses, correspondent and analyst John King remarked that a brokered convention for the Democrats would be "a political correspondent's dream," given how rare such an occurrence is. In fact, as Newsweek points out, the last one was in 1952, and that's a long time by any measure, especially in the world of presidential politics. Correspondents, reporters, and all in attendance at the Democratic National Convention in late August would be witness to true history, and pure drama. To think that the battle to be the nominee of the Democratic Party would come down to negotiations between "superdelegates," figuring out what to do with John Edwards' delegates, and coming up with a way to seat the delegates from Michigan and Florida is incredible, almost unimaginable to most people. Network coverage of the convention, which has declined each cycle as the event has become all-but symbolic in its purpose, would certainly increase as the convention became the true battleground site. Debate would be real, loud, and ongoing throughout the event, and the planned speeches and public events would be monitored as closely as ever for signs of where the party was going with its decision. If conventions are normally planned by the nominee's staff, then how would events unfold with both Clinton and Obama injecting their preferences and choices for speakers, music, and timing of events? With no nominee, the Democratic Party would look the most disorganized and disunited it has ever appeared in recent times at just the moment of the highest public attention. And there most certainly would be no Vice Presidential nominee on stage, unless they had each chosen one of their own, or unless they had chosen to run together by then, with the order of the ticket yet to be determined.

In essence, the Democratic National Convention would be must-see-TV. And in a year with record primary period ratings for CNN and Fox News, they are evidently just licking their chops waiting for this rarest of rare events to occur. It would be the circus of all circuses, but with huge stakes at play. These are the kinds of things that students of politics and political correspondents read about in text books. Come this August, this could be the reality of the Democratic Party.

But not if Howard Dean, the Democratic National Committee Chairman, has anything to do with it. He's recently been quoted as saying that "I think we're going to have a nominee by middle of March or April. But if we don't, then we're gonna have to get the candidates together and make some kind of arrangement, because I don't think we can afford to have a brokered convention." He realizes how ugly such a situation would be, even if the press and the Republican Party are eager to see it happen. Dean recognizes that the party, including the voters and superdelegates, must come together and make a decision in the next few months or else face the prospect of losing in November. As a student of political history himself, Dean knows that the more divided a party is heading into November, the more likely it is to lose: "As Dean observed, there have been three divided Democratic conventions in recent decades -- 1968, 1972 and 1980. Democrats lost each time." It sure would be interesting, but it's probably not in the best interest of the Democratic Party.

John King can still hold on to his dream, however, at least for the time being.

2 comments:

norcal said...

I think this presents some interesting components involved in this year's election. With the democratic race so close, it is going to be hard to decide a nominee before November, but I agree with Ben's post in the sense that waiting till the covention to decide a nominee will hurt the party immensly. Especially if the republican party has announced their nominee already. I am interested to see how this will play out.

jgoebel said...

Howard Dean is smart to push the Democratic Party to choose a candidate sooner rather than later in order to allow time for the Party to rally behind the nominee and leave the contentious primary season behind. A brokered convention might generate as much resentment as excitement--an unacceptable, self-damaging scenario for Democrats going into an election where they once seemed to have a major edge.

But the question remains: HOW does Dean plan to avoid a brokered convention if the race stays close? What does he mean by "make some kind of arrangement"? Easier said than done! For the forseeable future, both contendors have a strong claim on the nomination and neither will give it up easily. Supporters might rightfully feel betrayed if a candidate is seen as yielding without fighting to the end.

Also, how much authority do the candidates actually grant Dean? Even if he is trying to do what is best for the Party, will they really defer to him after all the blood, sweat, and cash they have poured into their campaigns? I can't even imagine how this will play out.