Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Rev Wright and the Polls, Barack's deathnail?

Will public opinion polls ultimately decide how super delegates vote?

A vote--the deciding vote--hinges on polls of perceptions of a man not running for office: the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

A historic opportunity to begin to redress cynicism and the corruption of American democracy--squandered by a voting public unable and unwilling to distinguish between two starkly different men. Devastating.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Wright is not Helping

With Obama losing the Pennsylvania primary just last week, this is not a good time for his campaign to have to deal with more controversial comments made by Rev. Wright, while still trying to increase his support in the upcoming primaries. Personally I feel that because the election has taken a lull, this new information regarding Wright's comments that he would not be surprised if the U.S. government was responsible for the AIDS epidemic amongst African Americans, will drastically hurt Obama. Recent polls showed that 20% of voters in the Pennsylvania weighed heavily on the race issue. Even though Obama has stated that he in no way agrees with Rev. Wright's comments, it is still the issue that he has known this man for 20 years. Which makes me wonder, how can people control what their friends or acquaintances say? Is it fair to judge the candidates on what the public is saying? Yes, I know that is what happens, but is there a way to prevent it?

On Another note, the Republican party is constantly gaining more ammunition against Obama if he were to win the Democratic nominee. Could Rev. Wright be the main factor that prevents Obama from becoming the Democratic nominee?


http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-wright29apr29,1,2787169.story

The New Sailboat?

In the past month or so, Barack Obama is starting to look more and more mortal to voters throughout America. The scandal with Reverend Wright and the comments made about religion and guns have provided an opportunity for the Republicans to seize upon. In a great article on politico by Josh Krashaar, he explains how the RNC has recently purchased half a million dollars in ads to begin attacking Obama, particularly in Republican leaning districts in places like Mississippi and Louisiana. I think it will be interested to see how effective these ads will be in convincing voters that Obama is an elitist. I do not foresee them to be as damning as the sailboat ads for Kerry because it does not carry the same simple message of being able to say he said x than y. Instead, it will have to rely on statements like “Obama is an elitist. Who hates your ability to be religious or have a gun.” In reality, he doesn’t really think these things. Additionally, every President could probably be considered elitist given the schools they have attended, their families’ wealth, etc. I don’t think it will be quite the same issue as it was for Kerry but who knows.

Contributing:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9933.html

I Need Some Help

What exactly is the difference between the comments made by Reverend Wright and those made by Pats Robertson and Buchanan? I'm really having a hard time understanding why Reverend Wright's comments don't seem to go away, yet the same man who wrote A Brief for Whitey and the following comments seem to have faded into the sunset?

-"Over 100 years, I think the gradual erosion of the consensus that’s held our country together is probably more serious than a few bearded terrorists who fly into buildings." –Pat Robertson, on the dangers of judicial activism

-"Just like what Nazi Germany did to the Jews, so liberal America is now doing to the evangelical Christians. It's no different. It is the same thing. It is happening all over again. It is the Democratic Congress, the liberal-based media and the homosexuals who want to destroy the Christians. Wholesale abuse and discrimination and the worst bigotry directed toward any group in America today. More terrible than anything suffered by any minority in history." –Pat Robertson

-"(T)he feminist agenda is not about equal rights for women. It is about a socialist, anti-family political movement that encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcraft, destroy capitalism and become lesbians." –Pat Robertson

-"Maybe we need a very small nuke thrown off on Foggy Bottom to shake things up" –Pat Robertson, on blowing up the State Department.

So Pat Robertson can say that evangelical Christians are the most discriminated group of people in America, that feminism turns women into witch lesbians, that the erosion of judicial activism is worse than the events of 9/11 AND co-sign on Jerry Falwell:

- "Well, I totally concur." –Pat Robertson to Jerry Falwell following the Sept. 11 attacks, after Falwell said, "I really believe that the pagans, and the abortionists, and the feminists, and the gays and the lesbians who are actively trying to make that an alternative lifestyle, the ACLU, People For the American Way -- all of them who have tried to secularize America -- I point the finger in their face and say: "You helped this happen."

Why is it that all of this hatefulness can be spewed, and McCain suffers little to no criticism for aligning himself with the likes of Pat Buchanan, yet I'm still hearing about Rev. Wright's same comments 6 weeks later? Do people expect for him to go into hiding and never show his face publicly again?

In terms of the 9/11 comments, Robertson, Wright and Falwell should be ashamed of themselves. They're ALL wrong on that, and yet two of the three aren't receiving the intense media scrutiny of Wright. In terms of Wright's race comments, quite frankly, I think they make white people a little bit more uncomfortable because the comments are directed towards them than when Buchanan and Robertson make the same equally offensive comments towards nonwhites. I really don't think that Wright's comments are anything new, anything that mainstream America hasn't heard before from a prominent person in the black community. But I also think it's wrong to continually ask Obama about his pastor and use it as a reason to knock Obama when McCain/Buchanan aren't getting the same treatment. Or maybe it's just clear to everybody that Pat Buchanan and Pat Robertson are off their rockers and paying them any attention is like feeding the gremlins after midnight.

So if someone could delineate the difference for me, I'd appreciate it.

That Bitch of a Word: Electability

According to a new poll from The Associated Press, If the U.S. presidential election was held today, Hillary Clinton would beat John McCain by a 9-point margin, 50 percent to 41 percent.

The poll shows that when Barack Obama faces McCain, the two are statistically tied — though, Obama holds a two point edge over McCain, within the poll's margin of error.

The poll, taken April 23-27, questioned 1,001 adults nationally, with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. Included were interviews with 457 Democratic voters and people leaning Democratic, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.6 points, and 346 Republicans or GOP-leaning voters, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.3 points.

North Caroline Governor is Planning to endorse Clinton

According to AP report, Mike Easley, a popular North Carolina governor and a superdelegate, is planning to endorse Hillary Clinton. This is an unexpected turn since 17 of that state’s superdelegates endorsed Obama. Moreover, the demographics of the state (solid African American and white liberal voter population) do not favor Clinton.

The strategy of an under dog is much more successful for Clinton’s campaign, and I think it was a strategic error to assume a position of a front runner in the beginning of the primary season. These strategies not only gave Obama time to emerge and build a solid, structured, and a very organized base of supporters, but also attract media attention and point out all of Clinton’s flaws to make it even easier to overthrow her. On the contrary, as illustrated by the NC governor’s endorsement and double digit win in Pennsylvania, Clinton is much more successful in emerging from seemingly hopeless situations than in securing her position as a front runner.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D90B3PS81&show_article=1

Monday, April 28, 2008

A nation of laws…

Last week the verdict about Sean Bell shooting came down. This 23-year-old African American man received 50 bullets on his wedding day. The Queens judge said that prosecutors failed to prove their case. What interested me is that in the context of a presidential campaign with an African American running, Obama’s reaction was interesting. Democratic candidates were both asked to react to the verdict. Yet, Obama’s reaction was eagerly expected. The Senator from Illinois finally came out and said that “in a nation at laws it is important to respect the verdict that came down.”
On the one hand, this reaction is fair as a politician must respect the independence of justice and must avoid any comment regarding justice’s decisions. On the other hand, one could say that this reaction fits in a political calculus. Indeed, as Sean Bell shooting turned into a racial issue, it was crucial for Obama to answer to African American people’s anger, but not to appear as African American people spokesperson. One will say that Obama’s reaction was already that of a statesman, other could say that asking for measures that will avoid another drama is as lifeless as a political and diplomatic reaction in that case. Definitely a hard job…

Could things actually be genial?

In the most recent New Yorker, Dorothy Wickenden raises a very odd possibility - a mainly cordial election.

Nobody seems to know quite what to make of all this, but one thing does seem clear in the aberrant election of ’08: Barack Obama (still the likely Democratic nominee) and John McCain lifted themselves above the pack, despite enormous odds, largely because they pledged to be civil. At a campaign stop in Prescott, Arizona, on April 5th, McCain told the crowd, “We are Americans first and partisans second,” adding that the contest “should remain an argument among friends.”


Compared with campaigns of late, including Hillary Clinton's, this could actually be refreshing. I'm not getting my hopes up, though.

McCain Health Care

"I've made it very clear that what I want is for families to make decisions about their health care, not government, and that's the fundamental difference between myself and Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton," McCain told reporters in Miami, Florida, referring to the two remaining Democratic presidential candidates, Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

"They want the government to make the decisions, I want the families to make decisions," he said.

During a speech at the Miami Children's Hospital in Miami, Florida, McCain said he was ready to take on the "parochial interests" in health care and challenged doctors, hospitals, drug manufactures and insurance providers to do a better job of holding down costs.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/04/28/mccain/index.html

I think that McCain has a strong point by arguing that families and individuals should be responsible for making decisions regarding their health care. I dont think that the government making all the decisions for the people is the correct way to go about solving the health care problem.

Elizabeth Edwards weighs in on press shortcomings

As the spotlight shifts to North Carolina, one of the state's leading political families has taken the opportunity to re-enter the campaign dialogue after dropping out of the race earlier this year. Last week, John Edwards made a hilarious stop on "The Colbert Report," and yesterday, his popular wife Elizabeth contributed an op-ed piece to the New York Times in which she critiques media coverage of the campaign.

Edwards repeats many of the now familiar refrains about the media's leaning on soundbites, drama, and trivial matters rather than providing in-depth reports about issues and policies; the article is entitled "Bowling 1, Health Care 0." She laments the "Cliff Notes of the news" and "strobe-light journalism" that deprive us of the full picture. Rather than complaining on her husband's behalf, she points to other worthy candidates whose campaigns were doomed from the start by media neglect, in particular Joe Biden. By contrast, she notes how much attention Fred Thompson received before even entering the race officially.

I think an especially intriguing passage is one where Edwards describes the convenient narrative template that the media has constructed for the campaign, making each candidate an archetypal character in a story: "on one side, a self-described 9/11 hero with a colorful personal life, a former senator who had played a president in the movies, a genuine war hero with a stunning wife and an intriguing temperament, and a handsome governor with a beautiful family and a high school sweetheart as his bride. And on the other side, a senator who had been first lady, a young African-American senator with an Ivy League diploma, a Hispanic governor with a self-deprecating sense of humor and even a former senator from the South standing loyally beside his ill wife." While those easy characterizations are true, they are not enough; Edwards argues that "issues that could make a difference in the lives of Americans didn’t fit into the narrative template and, therefore, took a back seat to these superficialities. "

Edwards concludes that the media must change, and it will not do so on its own accord: "If voters want a vibrant, vigorous press, apparently we will have to demand it." It is a worthy call to remind people that we may get the news we deserve, so we must raise our expectations rather than being complicit in the rampant mediocrity of reporting today. I think her piece offers an eloquent summary of a grievance many have been seeking to articulate over the course of the campaign. It helps for respected figures like Elizabeth Edwards to put public pressure on the media to do better. If we consider the primary season as a first semester, the media's report card is the kind you might want to intercept at the mailbox; in the coming months, the media should aim for general election grades worthy of the fridge door.

Obama's Struggle With the Older Generations

While Barack Obama is most popular with younger voters, he is having trouble winning over the older population. Obama has addressed the issue, but says, “Older voters are very loyal to Senator Clinton,” which he has claimed to be the problem accounting for his loss in Pennsylvania. Exit polls show that in Pennsylvania Obama won 54 percent of white men under age 45, while Clinton won 61 percent of the older white men. One of Obama’s senior advisers has discussed that there has been no “detailed polling or focus groups to help better understand the problem.” Age seems to be a huge factor in voting tendencies. Why is it that the older population seems to favor Clinton? Obama’s even bigger struggle is with the Hispanic population. Could this be due to the historical tension between African Americans and Hispanics? I have since thought that this has become less of an issue, but could this still be playing a role in why they are favoring Clinton? Or are there other reasons, such as this population simply favoring Clinton due to her ideas and plans for office? The reasons for the way in which people vote are interesting to me and I wonder what qualities or traits are most important. I sometimes find it hard to believe the polls and surveys that research this because it is hard to determine if people are stating the real reasons as to why they vote certain ways or whether they are just stating the reasons that sound politically correct.

Obama Stops The Clock on Fox

A recently posted article on Politico.com introduced a very interesting piece about a recent television appearance for Barack Obama. The article, entitled, "Obama Stops The Clock on Fox" talks about an appearance Obama finally made on Fox News Sunday, after 772 days.

I'll be the first to admit that I was unaware of this injustice experienced by the unbias, ethical folks over at Fox News (Being a New Yorker, I'm very sarcastic). Before getting past the first few sentences I was impressed with the Senator's resilience and eventual bravery in appearing. This is the same right-wing network that employs Bill O' Reilly. Critics say candidates need to stand before the firing squad, but why should Obama subject himself to bias exposure.

The article continues by saying that the appearance was quite civil. For one, I think that Obama has proven to be a worthy adversary and now both sides realize the importance of this election. With that being said, I'm surprised but happy that the experience was civil. Chris Wallace asked the obvious controversial questions, but that is to be expected. Obama was convicted in his beliefs but also respecting of the Republican Party.

What do you guys think of his appearance on the show? Do you think he should have kept his ground and not participated? Why did he appear now?
These are interesting questions and start the thought about the general election (If Obama is to win).

Sunday, April 27, 2008

Reject and Denounce

All the candidates at some point during this primary have had to "reject and denounce" something one of their supporters said or did. McCain had to do it in Ohio with the radio host who kept repeating "Barack Hussein Obama". Obama had to 'denounce' Louis Farrakhan after Farrakhan endorsed Obama. After a supporter in TX said that Obama's problem was that 'he happened to be black', Clinton had to reject and denounce his statements.

These are just examples, there is so much rejecting and denouncing going on it is hard to keep track of. Ben Smith from the Politico links to a site where anyone can get in on the action of "rejecting and denouncing"! So if anyone is jealous that they can't get in on it, now you have your chance!

Enjoy...

Campaign Calories

After watching the SNL skit on former President Clinton overeating at McDonalds, I was intrigued when I came across an article discussing the candidates eating habits on the campaign trail. While the article mainly discussed Senator Clinton's and Senator Obama's eating habits, I was most fascinated at the end of the article by the section entitled "Infamous Appetite." It goes without saying that they discussed former President Clinton's eating while campaigning for his wife. Even Senator Clinton has poked fun at her husband's eating habits in North Carolina saying, "You gotta help me out here because my husband loves North Carolina, and he loves barbecue and he's been eating a lot of it across the state." Although this has nothing to do with the actual election, it seems that former President Clinton will never separate himself from the image of indulgence.

In reading the article "Appetite for Votes: Campaign Calorie Count," I tried to understand if there was a relevance to the actual election. The article discussed Senator Clinton and Senator Obama's eating habits on the campaign trail. It seems the two are fairly opposite. Clinton has accepted food offered to her throughout the campaign and frequently enjoys a beer on the way back to the plane. This all helps dispel her cold image helping her to appear more friendly and like the common public. On the other hand, Obama has no problem refusing food and drinking little beer. When offered food, he generally take the "obligatory taste." He jokes that he is "skinny, but tough." How does eating affect the candidates image? Can it affect the image enough to lose votes? Can this become part of a candidates strategy?

ABC NEWS: Appetite for Votes: Campaign Calorie Count

Friday, April 25, 2008

The Politics of North Carolina

The phrase "all politics is local" certainly applies to this year's Democratic Primary, as nearly every corner of the country will have been covered by the time this process (finally) ends, whether it be in May, June, or beyond. For me, having lived all my life prior to college in North Carolina, it's exciting to watch as the political spotlight finally returns to my home state, allowing North Carolinians the chance to play a major role in national politics.

North Carolina overall is a very odd state politically. It tends to vote Democratic in state races, as voters have elected a Democratic majority to the state Senate for more than 100 years, and Democratic governors have enjoyed great success over many decades recently, while voting Republican for President. The last Democratic Presidential candidate to win North Carolina was Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter who swept most of the South back in 1976. Senate races are the most confusing of all, as a liberal populist like John Edwards can win his seat rather easily at the same time as Jesse Helms, one of the most conservative men in America, is also enjoying great popularity.

North Carolina has roughly 9 million people, which makes it the 10th largest state in the US. Recent economic troubles have seen manufacturing and textile jobs leave the state in record numbers, while the banking capital of Charlotte continues to play a major role internationally. Two major military installations, Marine Corps' Camp Lejeune and the Army's Fort Bragg, have played a major role in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and, as a result, a large number of casualties have originated from these bases.

The outgoing governor, Mike Easley, and former Senator John Edwards have refused to endorse either Clinton or Obama, but Obama still enjoys a sizable lead among those superdelegates in the state who have already indicated their preference. Obama is leading in all recent polls taken in the state as well, in most by a large margin, and averages a double-digit advantage at this point, according to Real Clear Politics. Obama also raised nearly three times as much money from NC donors as Clinton did in the month of March, illustrating once more that Clinton faces an uphill battle in the state on May 6 to continue the momentum she gained by winning the Pennsylvania primary.

The two leading Democratic candidates for NC Governor, Bev Perdue and Richard Moore, have also endorsed Obama and used the candidate as a central part of their campaign advertisements. In response, on Monday the North Carolina GOP will begin running an ad against the two Democrats that attacks their support for Obama based on Obama's connection to Rev. Wright. The ad was posted online Wednesday, quickly rising to the #1 most viewed video on the internet because of its"controversial" strategy to bring Rev. Wright, and possibly the issue of race, back into the mix of this election. Senator McCain and the national GOP party asked the state party to not air the ad for these reasons, but in the truly unpredictable nature of North Carolina politics, the NC GOP party chairwoman is aggressively moving forward with this line of attack. What effect the ad, and the large amount of attention surrounding it, may have on the primary or general election will be interesting to follow.

If Obama is to win the Democratic primary on May 6, as most experts expect he will, it may help bring the primary season to an end, also depending on how the voting goes in Indiana on the same day. Looking forward to the general election in November, no one knows if Obama will be able to make the state a competitive battleground, but a shift from Republican to Democratic would be substantial. The state's 15 electoral votes could be up for grabs, according to Electoral-Vote.com, as the site has the state as a firm toss up at the moment based on the most recent polling, showing that if all the polling data was accurate, an Obama-McCain race would be decided by whoever wins the Tarheel State. Obviously it's too early to know which states will prove decisive this fall, but with the rising numbers of registered NC Democrats, the popularity Obama enjoys among college-aged youth, and the swirling controversy over the GOP's use of an anti-Rev. Wright ad, the election this fall could provide North Carolina with an even greater amount of political power. For the sake of an interesting race this fall, and many interesting home state storylines, here's hoping that North Carolina remains politically competitive for quite some time.

Who is the frontrunner now?

Although it looked like she had "virtually no chance a couple of winning" a couple of weeks ago, Clinton is trying to ride the momentum from her PA victory to reclaim herself as the frontrunner in this close (and may I add exhausting) contest. A New York Times article published today descibes how a little number crunching can put her ahead of Obama. Clinton and her team are renewing their efforts to have the Michigan and Florida delegates seated at the national convention, and they contend that she leads in votes cast if tallies in those states are counted. The results of these two states are currently not recognized because they broke Democratic Party rules by having early primaries. In addition, the delegates were denied seats at the national convention.

On Thursday, a Michigan superdelegate filed a complaint to the party leadership demanding that at least half the state's delegated be seated at the national convention. Similar complaints have been made in Florida, and they are all under review. Clinton won these states by double digit margins, and counting them would put her popular vote count at just over 15 million, with Obama just below 15 million. Currently, under the "rules," Obama is ahead in popular votes by roughly 500,000, but untimtely it is delegates, not votes, who decide who the presidential candidate will be.

I think this "controversy" is a great way for Clinton to win over superdelegates. It will bring attention to the fact that in all reality, Clinton HAS gotten the most votes when they are ALL counted. A lead in popoluar votes is a very compelling argument to win over superdelegates. Obama has consistently used that fact to prove he deserves to win thus far. But now, I think the title should go to Clinton.

Who is the REAL frontrunner? And should the delegates of Michigan and Florida be seated at the convention ?

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

And nothing is truly changed...

With Clinton winning by exactly 10 points, the race is still up in the air. The 10 points seems to re-enforce that no progress has been made since March. It seems like the race will continue until the end of the primary season for Democrats in Puerto Rico. Republicans are very happy with the outcome of tonight because it does not give Clinton enough of a victory to validly claim that she deserves to be the nominee, but it was not small enough that Obama can claim the nomination. Clinton can claim a win is a win, but she did not win by a great enough margin to undoubtedly become the Democratic candidate. David Gergen, from CNN, points out that Obama is still in the lead ahead in the overall race for the nomination and that he is likely to hold that lead. So, then the question comes to whether super delegates will view Clinton as the better choice over Obama. And with that, we are back where we started, and the boredom of the last long and drawn out seven weeks seems to be continuing on until the convention in August. If you want to look for the bright side, (while the Democrats are not happy with the situation,) the Republicans are happy.

Flicks: Reagan Smash/John McCain Is Crazy Old

here are the two clips I mentioned in class today:



In case you missed the reference, Reagan gave a speech at the Berlin Wall in '87, challenging Gorbachev, the Russian ruler, to tear down the wall.



I forgot how hilarious this sketch was. "Seniorgate"

Finally the Pennsylvania Primary

With the primary season seeming to go on forever, could Pennsylvania finally be turning point? Many news reports are saying that if Clinton were to win the Pennsylvania primary by more than 10 points then it would prove that her campaign was gaining momentum. If Clinton wins Pennsylvania then she would have won the bigger state primaries such as California, Ohio, and Texas. If she wins Pennsylvania by less then 10 points, analysts argue that it will show that Obama is gaining momentum.

If Obama were to win Pennsylvania, I personally feel that there would be a good chance for Hillary to remove herself from the race. With a few more primaries to go, the Democratic party is suffering by not declaring their candidate. The interesting question will be what will Obama do if he looses Pennsylvania? Will Pennsylvania be the deciding state that declares the democratic nomination or is this election season going to continue on till the convention?


http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/

Bill is a Genius

I was watching an episode of Glenn Beck that I had recorded from last week when Glenn was on vacation. One of the segments was on a new theory about the of the state of the Clinton campaign. In this segment it was suggested that Bill Clinton is trying to lose this election for his wife and has been trying to do so all along. The idea is that Bill Clinton has the best political mind of anyone alive today. He knew exactly what he was doing when he basically said, Obviously Jesse Jackson won South Carolina, after all he’s won twice before. He knew what he was doing when he let Mark Penn get away with not having a strategy beyond Super Tuesday. He knew exactly what he was saying when he dragged the Sniper fire story back into the news and contradicted her “3 am” advertisement. Bill Clinton does not want to risk being the second best Clinton President. He does not want to be first lady. And most of all, he does not want to be divorced by his wife on national television after he inevitably messes around with an intern. Besides nine out of ten blacks want Barrack Obama to win and it is a strong possibility that Bill Clinton is one of them.

McCain's financial trouble

According to the article McCain Exists Campaign Money Raise published on politico.com, McCain is abandoning fund raising as the primary financing source of his campaign and is taking taxpayers money along with RNC funding to further finance his presidential bid. His campaign’s finance report shows that he has raised only $72 million during the campaign (including March results) compared to Obama’s $236 million and Clinton’s $195 million. Since McCain will be very restricted in his finances, he is running a high risk of being greatly overspent by a future Democratic rival. Limited finances also can limit McCain’s ability to immediately react to attacks or gaffes of Democrats because he would not be able to run an expensive response ad or an attack ad. It also means that Republican nominee will have to focus his presence in limited most important media markets, which would leave other segments vulnerable to appeals exclusively by democrats.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9737.html

Going back to the basics....

This past week on CNN, there was a documentary on Hilary Clinton and her life and experience as a politician. The documentary was very informative. If began from when she attended Wesley and discussed how she changed parties. It even discussed how her senior thesis (from a republic perceptive) was taken off the shelf while Bill was in office. It followed her life and I actually thought she was pretty at one point in her life (sorry but she has aged so much).

The reason I called this blog going back to the basics is because the documentary really have insight into Hilary Clinton and her journey. It seemed very genuine and present Hilary as a HUMAN BEING who is approachable. I was watching the documentary with a life time Obama supporter and he said that he learned a lot about Hilary and felt that he might have voted for her during the primaries if she had presented herself the way the documentary presented her. Therefore my question is, IS IT TOO LATE?

In the PA Race it is the Margin of Victory that Matters

Many political analysts predict that Senator Clinton will win the state of Pennsylvania. However, winning the state may not be a political victory. If Clinton fails to have a large margin of victory (by at least 10 points), it may be time for her to throw in the towel in this dragged out Democratic Primary. The 300 uncommitted superdelegates will break down this primary with a fine tooth comb. Pennsylvania is Clinton's demographic main turf. Failure to take this state by a large margin would show her loss of momentum with the lower-income Democrats who supported her in earlier elections. Clinton does not see the importance of Margin of Victory. "A win is a win," to her, but is this really just another one of her attempts to hold onto a race already lost?

I cannot wait and see what happens today. With PA looking for a record turnout in voters, it will be interesting to see who those that do not usually vote choose. For the Democratic party, I hope that this primary leaves them with some kind of direction. If we move into May and June with no clear Democratic candidate, there could be dire consequences for the party. In my opinion (although it might be biased as an Obama supporter), feels like it would be better for the party as a whole if Clinton did not gain a large margin of victory in PA or if Obama won PA. Then, the Democratic party could finally move forward, unite the party, and try to regain the White House in November.

Cafferty: Should Clinton quit if she doesn't win Pennsylvania by at least 10 points?
LAT: What to look for in the Pennsylvania primary
LAT: Clinton says margin won't matter

New Endorsement: Michael Moore

"My Vote's for Obama (if I could vote) …by Michael Moore

Friends,

I don't get to vote for President this primary season. I live in Michigan. The party leaders (both here and in D.C.) couldn't get their act together, and thus our votes will not be counted.

So, if you live in Pennsylvania, can you do me a favor? Will you please cast my vote — and yours — on Tuesday for Senator Barack Obama?

I haven't spoken publicly ’til now as to who I would vote for, primarily for two reasons: 1) Who cares?; and 2) I (and most people I know) don't give a rat's ass whose name is on the ballot in November, as long as there's a picture of JFK and FDR riding a donkey at the top of the ballot, and the word "Democratic" next to the candidate's name.

Seriously, I know so many people who don't care if the name under the Big "D" is Dancer, Prancer, Clinton or Blitzen. It can be Mickey Mouse, Donald Duck, Barry Obama or the Dalai Lama.

Well, that sounded good last year, but over the past two months, the actions and words of Hillary Clinton have gone from being merely disappointing to downright disgusting. I guess the debate last week was the final straw. I've watched Senator Clinton and her husband play this game of appealing to the worst side of white people, but last Wednesday, when she hurled the name "Farrakhan" out of nowhere, well that's when the silly season came to an early end for me. She said the "F" word to scare white people, pure and simple. Of course, Obama has no connection to Farrakhan. But, according to Senator Clinton, Obama's pastor does — AND the "church bulletin" once included a Los Angeles Times op-ed from some guy with Hamas! No, not the church bulletin!

This sleazy attempt to smear Obama was brilliantly explained the following night by Stephen Colbert. He pointed out that if Obama is supported by Ted Kennedy, who is Catholic, and the Catholic Church is led by a Pope who was in the Hitler Youth, that can mean only one thing: OBAMA LOVES HITLER!

Yes, Senator Clinton, that's how you sounded. Like you were nuts. Like you were a bigot stoking the fires of stupidity. How sad that I would ever have to write those words about you. You have devoted your life to good causes and good deeds. And now to throw it all away for an office you can't win unless you smear the black man so much that the superdelegates cry "Uncle (Tom)" and give it all to you.

But that can't happen. You cast your die when you voted to start this bloody war. When you did that you were like Moses who lost it for a moment and, because of that, was prohibited from entering the Promised Land.

How sad for a country that wanted to see the first woman elected to the White House. That day will come — but it won't be you. We'll have to wait for the current Democratic governor of Kansas to run in 2016 (you read it here first!).

There are those who say Obama isn't ready, or he's voted wrong on this or that. But that's looking at the trees and not the forest. What we are witnessing is not just a candidate but a profound, massive public movement for change. My endorsement is more for Obama The Movement than it is for Obama the candidate.

That is not to take anything away from this exceptional man. But what's going on is bigger than him at this point, and that's a good thing for the country. Because, when he wins in November, that Obama Movement is going to have to stay alert and active. Corporate America is not going to give up their hold on our government just because we say so. President Obama is going to need a nation of millions to stand behind him.

I know some of you will say, 'Mike, what have the Democrats done to deserve our vote?' That's a damn good question. In November of '06, the country loudly sent a message that we wanted the war to end. Yet the Democrats have done nothing. So why should we be so eager to line up happily behind them?

I'll tell you why. Because I can't stand one more friggin' minute of this administration and the permanent, irreversible damage it has done to our people and to this world. I'm almost at the point where I don't care if the Democrats don't have a backbone or a kneebone or a thought in their dizzy little heads. Just as long as their name ain't "Bush" and the word "Republican" is not beside theirs on the ballot, then that's good enough for me.

I, like the majority of Americans, have been pummeled senseless for 8 long years. That's why I will join millions of citizens and stagger into the voting booth come November, like a boxer in the 12th round, all bloodied and bruised with one eye swollen shut, looking for the only thing that matters — that big "D" on the ballot.

Don't get me wrong. I lost my rose-colored glasses a long time ago.

It's foolish to see the Democrats as anything but a nicer version of a party that exists to do the bidding of the corporate elite in this country. Any endorsement of a Democrat must be done with this acknowledgement and a hope that one day we will have a party that'll represent the people first, and laws that allow that party an equal voice.

Finally, I want to say a word about the basic decency I have seen in Mr. Obama. Mrs. Clinton continues to throw the Rev. Wright up in his face as part of her mission to keep stoking the fears of White America. Every time she does this I shout at the TV, "Say it, Obama! Say that when she and her husband were having marital difficulties regarding Monica Lewinsky, who did she and Bill bring to the White House for 'spiritual counseling?' THE REVEREND JEREMIAH WRIGHT!"

But no, Obama won't throw that at her. It wouldn't be right. It wouldn't be decent. She's been through enough hurt. And so he remains silent and takes the mud she throws in his face.

That's why the crowds who come to see him are so large. That's why he'll take us down a more decent path. That's why I would vote for him if Michigan were allowed to have an election.

But the question I keep hearing is… 'can he win? Can he win in November?' In the distance we hear the siren of the death train called the Straight Talk Express. We know it's possible to hear the words "President McCain" on January 20th. We know there are still many Americans who will never vote for a black man. Hillary knows it, too. She's counting on it.

Pennsylvania, the state that gave birth to this great country, has a chance to set things right. It has not had a moment to shine like this since 1787 when our Constitution was written there. In that Constitution, they wrote that a black man or woman was only "three fifths" human. On Tuesday, the good people of Pennsylvania have a chance for redemption.

Yours,
Michael Moore"

Monday, April 21, 2008

Managing Expectations

Managing expectations is an important concept that we have talked about number of times throughout the course. Effectively mastering this tactic is invaluable—it can easily allow campaigns to spin losses as wins (or vice versa if not handled properly). The quickly approaching primary in Pennsylvania is an excellent example of the importance of creating expectations. Today on KDKA radio in Pittsburg, Obama told voters, “I’m not predicting a win. I’m predicting it’s going to be close and that we are going to do a lot better than people expect.” With Hillary’s initial lead in Pennsylvania somewhere around 16 percent, recent polls are suggesting it is somewhere closer to 5 percent. While there is a strong chance that Hillary will win Pennsylvania, it is entirely a question of degree. Headlines on websites like Bloomberg are currently arguing that Hillary will need both a record turnout and record margins to have a shot at winning the race. One of the best ways that Obama can ensure that this does not occur is to make it appear like Hillary is not controlling the momentum. As the California primary helped illustrate, even if it looks like Obama is slashing leads there remains a strong possibility that Hillary will state dominate states that were considered controlled by her. It will be interesting to see how everything plays out.


Relevant citations
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0408/Obama_Im_not_predicting_a_win.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2IYkr2D8ZGk&refer=worldwide

Swan Song for Somebody?

With the Pennsylvania primary happening tomorrow (FINALLY!!!), will whomever loses bow out of the race? We know that both candidates have pledged to stay in the race through the last primaries, but if somebody loses by double digits tomorrow, do you think it would be a good time for them to bow out?

I think that if the difference in percentage points between the two candidates is less than double digits, both Obama and Clinton should stay in, though that would be much to my chagrin, as I'm tiring of the process at this point. However, a double digit win in PA could swing the momentum heavily to one candidate, and minus anymore gaffes, could be the nail in the coffin for the loser.

So could tomorrow be the time to throw in the towel? Thoughts?

Long Democratic Primary Sparks Record Voter Turnout

According to a recent Politico article, since January, more than 217,000 people have registered to vote in Pennsylvania, mostly as democrats, and almost 178,000 voters switched parties-mostly to the Democratic party.

We've been hearing political pundits argue for awhile now about the implications of the Democratic race on the party. Many have called for Hillary Clinton to stop her bid for the nomination.

We've heard about the negative effects this has had, but the amount of interest this primary has sparked could be just what the doctor ordered. The Politico article speaks of the potential obstacles facing state and local officials as the lines, but I think that we need to focus on the importance of getting more voters to turnout.

Every election consists of commercials asking everyone to exercise their right to vote. We even had the highly popular (sense the sarcasm) vote or die campaign.

I think this election has demonstrated that the country really does care about it's future and the future of our neighbors. The last eight years have finally hit a nerve for people. We need to change our voting habits. Hopefully, tomorrow's election will reaffirm this article's prediction.

Racism a Crucial Factor

According to an article on Politico, an AP-yahoo poll conducted April 2 through the 14 concluded that there are about eight percent of whites who would be “uncomfortable voting for a black person.” While this percentage was willing to admit this, I’m sure that there are many others who feel the same way, but who refuse to admit this because racism is something that is looked down upon and could create embarrassment for some admitting to this, which it should. The article also explains that the poll found there are fifteen percent of voters who think that Obama is a Muslim when he is in fact a Christian. It got me thinking as to how much this would affect Obama if he wins the democratic election. Those who fail to do the research and who believe Obama to be a Muslim could have negative impacts on his campaign. The article suggests, “thinking a person is Muslim probably does not encourage you to vote for him in America today.” Also, Obama would automatically lose out on votes due to the numbers of White Americans who have admitted that they would not vote for a Black man regardless of his experience or qualifications. While the poll conducted found eight percent to be “uncomfortable voting for a black person,” I’m sure this number must be even bigger. While this is unfair criteria to base votes on, it is reality and there are also many other voters who base their decisions on the wrong information and reasons. It is important that everyone vote, but I also think it is important that people make educated votes and who vote for the right reasons.

Pennsylvania- Clinton vs. Obama

According to The Politico, a historic spike in Democratic voter registrations in Pennsylvania could help Barack Obama cut into Hillary Clinton’s vote in Tuesday’s primary, robbing her of the big victory margin she needs to justify continuing the primary fight. A county-by-county analysis by Politico suggests that the hard-fought primary between Obama and Clinton has accelerated an ongoing partisan shift in Pennsylvania that could soon move it out of the battleground presidential states, and ripple across congressional races this fall, as well.

Pennsylvania will mark a huge turning point for the Clinton and Obama. Pennsylvania is a state that seems to have a conservative and centrist population for the most part. For this state, Clinton seems to be the better Democratic fit as opposed to Obama, because of where she stands on certain issues. It will be interesting to see what happens here, because as this election has proven, anything can happen. But everyone, whether republican, democrat, conservative, or liberal, must be aware of the fact that voter participation is up now more than ever before, and this is also marking a turning point in our county’s political history. Hopefully Clinton will prevail and defy the odds this Tuesday! 

DNC's First Ad Attacking McCain

The DNC released today their first ad attacking McCain. The ad hits him on the economy. It is pretty effective in portraying McCain as out of touch with America and what is happening to our economy. The ad is below. However, I think the strategy is flawed. Karl Rove's philosophy for attacking candidates had been to dismantle their biggest strength (see: John Kerry and Vietnam) and then leave them with nothing. McCain's experience with regard to foreign affairs is unquestionably his strength. The war in Iraq still highly unpopular and McCain has been explicit in his support of the war so why not go after him about that? The other possibility is that DNC doesn't want to show their best cards yet, we will see...Either way, it is good to see that the DNC isn't sitting and twiddling their thumbs while Obama and Clinton rip each other apart...

Sunday, April 20, 2008

Rocky Balboa against African-American

With the upcoming primary in Pennsylvania, observers are looking for a disappearing category of people in polls: white men. The reason is that for the first of his history, the Democratic Party is going to nominate either a woman or an African-American man. Consequently, polls have focused on African-American voters as well as on women voters. In Pennsylvania, white men could make the difference next Tuesday, so that reporters are spread all over the state, searching for white men to interview. As Gail Collins wrote in her New York Times article, courting white men is not easier for the candidates. “The candidates’ desperation to make contact is showing. Barack Obama goes bowling in Altoona – with disastrous consequences. Hillary Clinton attempts to compare herself to Rocky Balboa prompting many people to note that Rocky lost to a black guy. Obama, rather cruelly, points out that Rocky is a fictional character. Clinton, in turn, reveals that she owns her own bowling ball…”
When one asks which discourse could seduce white men voters, commentators answer “maybe not change […] Pennsylvania is a state where change has not been a friend to your average white male, particularly the aging working-class ones who are the candidates’ prime target. Change left the state full of empty factories that towns keep desperately trying to make into condos or art museums.” In Pennsylvania, change pledged by Obama made white men victims, who saw part of their culture taken away. The dilemma of this election is that traditional democratic voters may be turn away from their traditional vote because of the choice offered. This may benefit the Republican Party which nominated a candidate from the majority… a white man.

Saturday, April 19, 2008

The media: whose side are they on, anyway?

Theoretically, journalists present objective accounts of campaign events, but over this prolonged contest for the Democratic nomination, charges of media bias have abounded. A steady stream of debates, gaffes, and other campaign events has presented ample fodder for soul-searching among members of the news media; that is, a lot of campaign coverage has been about campaign coverage.

A recent Politico article argues that the news media is "Obama's secret weapon." As others have already noted on our blog, ABC was widely panned for its handling of last week's debate. This article suggests that Stephanopolous and Gibson's questioning of Obama, although harsh, was not out of line. The article goes on to claim that the ensuing outcry over the moderators' tough approach actually indicates a broader media bias in his favor.

The notion of Obama as a media darling is not a new one; it's what led to SNL's oft-cited debate parody which fueled Clinton's complaints that the media favors Obama consistently. Media swooning was at its peak when Obama was an underdog, and it could partly be explained as a desire for a compelling storyline. Since Obama became a frontrunner, negative press surely has swelled--but has it been nearly as bad as the ugly stories Clinton dealt with during her long reign as frontrunner? This is the central question the article seeks to answer.

The Politico writers suggest that Obama was treated no worse during last week's debate than Clinton was treated in previous debates; why didn't journalists and political observers rush to her defense then? During the debate, Obama responded to the piercing questions by deriding the kind of campaign coverage that centers too much on gaffes and fluff at the expense of substance. This arguments fits into Obama's broad theme of a "new kind of politics," and for this reason, I think his criticisms of the media resonate much more strongly than his opponent's. Clinton was dismissed as "whiny" when she pointed to media favoritism; Obama is praised as courageous when he points to media shortsightedness.

With a likely matchup between Obama and McCain--both candidates having strong relationships with the media--it will be interesting to watch how coverage unfolds.

A "Teapot Tempest"

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette posted an editorial on Saturday that discussed the recent war of words between Senators Obama and Clinton over remarks each has made that have led to intense scrutiny, criticism, and supposed backlash. The Post-Gazette, obviously an important political player this week because of their influence within Pennsylvania, the site of this week's important Democratic primary, endorsed Senator Obama a few days ago and felt the need to comment on the commotion that has been raised, primarily on the subject of Obama's recent comments in San Francisco on the ideology of working-class America.

The paper calls Hillary's attempts to repeatedly condone these comments of "bitter" Americans and their need to "cling" to guns and God, as well as Barack's mentions of Hillary's false statements on her visit to Bosnia as First Lady, merely distractions and part of the "gotcha" politics that Americans have grown to hate. The paper correctly argues that these squabbles over misstatements and mistakes have moved the dialogue away from the crucial issues that need to be dealt with, like the failing economy, mortgage foreclosures, and the future of the war in Iraq. By discussing issues that will not affect the future of this country, as the paper argues, Americans are not getting to hear the debate that they need to hear, and they certainly did not hear it Wednesday night during the debate on ABC.

These issues are distractions because they have obscured the facts about the candidates, as the Post-Gazette points out how the elitist label would actually be more applicable to Hillary, given her educational and family background, as well as how well the GOP has done over the years at arguing that they are the party of the average American (because of (mis-)statements like Barack's), all while cutting taxes for the richest citizens, championing the interests of corporate America, and misleading citizens about the reasons for going to war. The paper also mentions that these issues can be used as distractions by the GOP in the general election campaign, as they argue that John McCain would rather be pushing his personal support for guns and religion versus Obama's stance on these issues, rather than discussing how badly his party's President has handled the economy and the ongoing wars overseas.

Therefore, the paper urges Pennsylvania voters, and all Americans for that matter, to reject this kind of political distraction, or "teapot tempest," and base their vote on who "is better equipped to lead America out of Iraq and back from the precipice of recession, not who made the fewest gaffes." A reminder along these lines seems like it should be unnecessary, but in a primary season that has dragged on so long without any new conversations of substance, it appears that voters need to be told to get their priorities straight one more time.

Candidates on The Colbert Report

This past Thursday, the Democratic candidates were guests on Comedy Central’s, The Colbert Report. Colbert has been in Pennsylvania this past week covering the Primary vote. Hillary went on the show when he had technical difficulties. She stressed her want and skill to help fix things when she helped Colbert get the screen working again. It was clear that she was talking about the problems in America and the world today, and the crowd cheered her on. Later on the episode, as Colbert claimed that it was sad the Obama could not be there, he appeared on the screen behind him as a surprise. Colbert made a joke about Clinton being mad at that she fixed the screen because then Obama was able to be on the show. Obama talked about issues in America some more before ending his appearance. Both of the candidates made an attempt to be lighter and more personable people. This was a change from the hard working serious faces that each of them have kept up throughout the previous month while campaigning in Pennsylvania. With the primary fast approaching, each candidate s trying to get as much positive publicity for himself/herself as possible in light of the negative attacks made on each of them. As to who got the “Colbert bump”, we will have to wait until the primary results come in to find out.

Friday, April 18, 2008

News making the debate or debate the making news?

(This is a good piggyback off of the post below.) Instead of covering important issues like the economy it seems like the recent debate between Obama and Clinton focused more on the trivial (in comparison to the real issues that need to be talked about) events of the past few weeks . It makes me wonder about the agenda-setting power of the media, which has recently turned the spotlight on Obama's recent gaffes. With nothing else to talk about, these issues have been the main course of the recent news cycle, but why did it filter into the debate? Don't they have more important things to talk about? Shouldn't the medis be jumping on the opportunity to MAKE news by talking SUBSTANCE? So it makes me wonder, is the debate making the news or is news making the debate? The content of the debate could very well make news for the media to feed off of, but it seems like the news set the agenda for the debate. Though once a media sweetheart, this worked against Obama Wednesday night.

Though I'm sure she would have been up to the challenge, Clinton didn't have to do much work to attack Obama because the moderators were doing it for her. As a politician, Obama could have tried to transcend the issues, but the media's focus on the gaffes put him in a corner. I find these gaffes to be a less pleasant part of the contest, because I think it puts the focus on less important slips and makes people lose sight of a candidate's true worth.

Mad As Hell, ABC Network News

ABC: Ah, where to begin?

20,000 viewers have written protest ABC's pathetic handling of the PA Democratic debate.

Label pins, bitterness, FIVE QUESTIONS ABOUT REV. WRIGHT. It took George Stephanopolous 60 minutes to ask about the voters' most pressing concern: The ECONOMY (stupid).

Charlie Gibson was booed by the studio at the commercial break. The Washington Post was appalled. Moveon.org is organizing a massive protest in Burbank at Disney Studios on Friday.

Moveon has a video. John Stewart dedicated three segments to the debate. But my favorite was a video bloggers mash up of the all-time-classic (and my all-time-favorite) film Network News.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

How Obama Fights Back...

Here is the Ben Smith article I had referenced. It is really informative in understanding another way to respond to attacks, a way that doesn't include a "wholehearted apology" or taking back what they said...

The Impact of Elitism

While everyone is talking about the recent claims made by Obama, claiming he is elitist, I think it’s interesting to look at the impact of this fiasco upon the campaign. Despite many people being angry and the Clinton campaign running ads showing people that were hurt by the comments, new polls indicate that Obama is reaching new highs in the polls, particularly in like Pennsylvania. There are some interesting conclusions to draw from this. Namely, there is a strong argument to be had that the top concern of many voters might be which candidate they view has a better chance of dealing with actual problems, like the economy, than their perception of the candidate. This plays well into the Obama campaign’s counter-ad regarding the controversy. The new ad shows Obama talking to a variety of local groups and has a voiceover make comments about how Clinton is stuck in the same game of Washington politics while only Obama will be able to actually create change on issues like rising gas prices (and then shows a sign for gasoline). It will be interesting to see how Pennsylvania will play out given that Obama has closed the lead but the same sort of thing happened in California and didn’t work out well for Obama.

New Polls showing PA is close:
http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/politics/blog/2008/04/clinton_stalls_obama_in_pa_pol.html


ADDITION- new gallup poll showingn Obama's lead is the largest yet:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106537/Gallup-Daily-Obama-51-Clinton-40.aspx

Obama -- a crowd pleaser

As much as I agree that Obama's comments were elitist and a great fallacy of his campaign, I also think that media is taking the wrong spin on this issue. I have a hard time believing that everything a candidate says on a campaign trail is a direct indication of what he thinks or how he relates to an issue. Rather, most of the candidate’s positions and speeches reflect what his or her particular audience wants to hear. However, some candidates manage to maintain their own identity and stay firmly on the positions they believe in even though they are unpopular. Barack Obama, unfortunately, is not one of them (even though he is constantly praising his vote against the war when everyone voted for it). His comments at the San Francisco fund raiser attended by the millionaires is just another proof that he will tell whatever he thinks the public wants to hear. The way he referred to the rural people of Philadelphia supports the stereotype that the participants of the fund raiser had, and by reinforcing it, Obama wanted to blend in and be closer to them. It does not necessarily indicate that he shares that opinion.

His campaign’s earlier slip with NAFTA comments in Ohio in addition to this gaffe in San Francisco prove that Obama is a crowd pleaser and is ready to say whatever he perceives would be popular. This is one of the most dangerous characteristics a wining candidate can have because it can negatively effect his electability in a general election.

Mccain sued

I was wondering how the outcome of this lawsuit will affect the Mccain campaign. If the allegations that the Democrats have made against Mccain are in fact true, the amount of money that Mccain can spend before the GOP's September convention will be held at a certain limit. aside from this being detrimental to Mccain's campaign, how will it affect his reputation? Will many assume that he is a cheater? Will many compare him to Bush as winning the election illegitimately? I think that there are many aspects that revolve around this lawsuit that take into account many other factors than just the funding itself.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/politics/la-na-money15apr15,1,337208.story

Elitist

When Barack Obama suggested that those savages in small town America would stop being gun tauten, bible thumping, bigots if us civilized people who don’t live in fly over country would just give them high paying jobs, socialized medicine, and free grad school, he was being an elitist. Make no mistake about it; he thinks he is better then everybody else. I love all regions of this country. One thing that I have noticed is that there is a lot to be said for living in a small town. When I visit remote areas, I find that the people are often very kind and extremely intelligent. I can see why people might not want to live in a big city. Barack Obama could help his much-dissevered elitist image by mentioning once or twice that he transferred to Columbia College from Occidental College. It is not mentioned on his website and I don’t recall hearing him say it while on the stump. All I ever hear from him is something about how he is so much more qualified the Clinton and McCain because he majored in international relations at Columbia and that it was so difficult for him to pay off his student loans because he only went to the second best law school in the country. Someone should ask him if he went to Occidental College for two years. I bet he would say no for about a week and then he would say he used a poor choice of words and what he really meant to say was that he went somewhere for two years and then finally, he would stall while trying to persuade university presidents to let Occidental into the Ivy League.

Obama is clever...

I just wanted to share an experience with the class and tell them about some advertisements I was viewing in another class regarding Obama vs. Clinton. It seems that most of Clinton's advertisements were reactive and a desperate attempt to come back from what ever criticisms she received from the media the previous week. Whereas Obama ensured that his advertisements were personable and approachable. He did this by employing two different tactics. His advertisements often took place in areas that he said needed help. For example, there was an ad in the middle of a construction pit where he was discussing better opportunities for workers. Another tactic he used was making sure that he related to the public. He showed pictures of his family growing up and showed the Caucasian side of his family to show that he is not only the African American candidate but also a candidate that looks like everyone else! He is very clever...

Profiling Cindy McCain

I'm posting an interesting write-up on Cindy McCain from the Chicago Tribune today, partly because I know I knew/heard little about her in relation to Michelle Obama and Bill Clinton, and partly because it appears she enjoys flying under the radar. With her husband's health seemingly always an issue in this campaign, the article notes that Cindy herself had a stroke about 4 years ago, at the age of 49. Her two sons are both fighting in Iraq, and she has an adopted daughter from Bangladesh. She's been traveling to conflict zones around the country for some time now, and pundits are speculating that if she becomes the First Lady she'll be somewhere between conservative Ladies Laura and Barbara Bush and more active Ladies like Nancy Reagan, Hillary Clinton and Rosalynn Carter.

The Contrasts of Cindy McCain

More Tracks from Us Weekly: "Vote For My Spouse"

A four page spread in last weeks Us Weekly featured letters written from Michelle Obama & Bill Clinton detailing why you should vote for their spouse. It's a REALLY interesting case of direct surrogacy, oxymoronic as that may be.

A link summarizing the article can be found here: http://www.usmagazine.com/bill-clinton-michelle-obama-write-pieces-for-us-weekly

The full article won't be online until a new issue is out, but I'll post a link when one is available.

Campaign Mockery

I recently read an article that talked about the harm that late night television talk shows have on the presidential candidates. Shows such as Jay Leno, David Letterman, and Conan O'Brien who currently poke fun at all three presidential candidates throughout their monologues could potentially hurt U.S. politics. If voters or the public continuously hear how corrupt, ignorant, and stupid all of the candidates are, then what difference does it make in who we vote for?

Late night TV turns democracy into a joke. "If the late-night talk shows make fun of every politician, night after night and election cycle after election cycle, is the butt of the joke no longer the politician but the American democratic system?" By creating a mockery out of all the presidential candidates, it takes away from the serious note that these men and women have to run our country that is "on the brink of a recession". The next President will have to deal with the economy, the war with Iraq, and other major issues involving foreign affairs, but majority of what people see are these candidates being laughed at or made fun of for their actions, names and other associations. It is not likely that late night television is going to change any time soon, but how long will it take for there to be a very serious impact, if there is isn't already, on our American democratic system?

Monday, April 14, 2008

Interesting perspective on Bill Clinton

I thought about discussing Obama's recent remarks, but I saw this article and found it very interesting. I've always been a big Bill Clinton supporter and this was an interesting perspective about his involvement in his wife's campaign. People have criticized the former president on a number of occasions during this campaign trail, but I never wrote about it. It might be that I had my blinders on but this article was very interesting.

"Bill Clinton 's Conduct in Wife's Campaign 'Unexplainable'", posted on the CNN Political Ticker earlier today, discusses the the former president's involvement in his wife's campaign. Clinton has done a lot of good for his wife's campaign, but many of his actions have hurt not only her campaign, but his image.

Political journalist Cokie Roberts made some very interesting comments, comments many people were probably thinking, but few put into words.

The math is tough for her,” Roberts said of Sen. Hillary Clinton’s White House bid. “And, every time she seems to get some traction, Bill Clinton comes along and says something that throws her off again,” added Roberts.

The former president has spoken out in favor of his wife but has also made enemies, including Senator Obama. Although the two have respect for one another, they have also had it out-something not common for a candidate's partner.

Roberts continued by saying that his actions are completely unexplainable, and that his intelligence is not being shown by his inabilities in supporting his wife for the presidency.

What do you think about the former president's involvement? Do you think that Clinton was hurt more then she was helped by the campaigning of her husband? I have always been the biggest supporter of Bill but I am as confused as Ms. Roberts. He could have helped to make his wife's campaign, but instead, she is now on the outside looking in.

Fractures,

“What the Democrats have to worry about are fractures within.” In his article published in The New York Times last Tuesday April 8th, Bob Herbert pointed to the danger for Democrats to be as torn as they could not be united enough to win the general elections. Meeting with Hillary Clinton’s supporters, the journalist noted that in case she would lose they will vote for Barack Obama: “I hope Hillary gets the nomination,” he said. “But if she doesn’t, I’ll vote for Obama without any trouble. We can’t stand another four years of Bush, and that’s what McCain would be.”
Fractures are Democrat supporters’ main fear. As Herbert said, “the big question is whether the losers in the fight for the nomination will wholeheartedly support the winners.” The journalist recalls what happened in 1968 when Richard Nixon won the presidential election: “the party was unable to get its act together in 1968 and unite behind Hubert Humphrey, thus opening the door for Richard Nixon. The ramifications of that bitter election are still being felt.”
What the journalist forgot to mention is that as I mentioned it earlier in this blog, the campaign has lasted too long already and neither the US democracy nor the candidates have anything to gain in this long, too long primary campaign. Every single day of campaign now adds to the debit of each candidate and dig in a little more the gap between Democratic candidates.

Obama's momentum takes a "bitter" turn

Predictably, Hillary Clinton swiftly released an attack ad seeking to capitalize on Barack Obama's recent gaffe:



In the days leading up to the Pennsylvania primary, we can be sure that Clinton will continue to make an issue of Obama's poorly phrased comments, using the incident to increase her advantage among rural voters. The timing of this error is terrible for Obama.

The Bosnia story was especially harmful to Clinton because it highlighted a key weakness of her candidacy: voters' hesitation to trust her considering her reputation for manipulating facts to her own benefit. Similarly, the "bitter" comments by Obama bring his shortcomings as a candidate into sharp focus, namely, notions that he is an elitist "latte liberal" who fails to connect with the working class just as John Kerry did. Further, Obama has been an optimistic candidate whose campaign is fueled by small donations from "regular" people; these comments seem to patronize average Americans, even striking a cynical note with the "cling" part.

What's worse, this fiasco fits into an unfortunate pattern for Obama: first his wife's comments about being proud of America for "the first time," then his pastor's comments damning America, and now comments by Obama himself seem to raise doubts about his attitude toward America. Especially in a matchup with a war hero, even a hint of a lack of patriotism is not something Obama can afford to have stick to his candidacy. It is somewhat ironic that the candidate of hope finds himself blasted for being negative about his country.

Personally, I think the argument Obama was trying to make is reasonable, but as a presidential candidate, he should have known better than to use such phrasing that would open him up to attacks. He should have avoided making negative, almost stereotypical generalizations about entire groups of people, and instead emphasized broader terms ("frustration"), focusing on sympathy and solutions for small-town Americans. It must be difficult not to slip up when speaking constantly, but Obama must know that any misstep will be exploited by his opponents to his detriment.

"You Can't Handle the Truth"

Sen. Obama's comments about the bitter working class "clinging to guns and religion" was certainly a mistake to say on a Presidential campaign but part of why it was a mistake is that it might be too close to the truth. Campaign after campaign we, the voters, hear all the things we want to hear but are not necessarily true. One of the more famous quotes in this category, "read my lips no new taxes". Of course once elected President Bush raised taxes.

Part of what Obama's appeal has been is that he seems to be more honest with the American people. Not always saying what they want to hear but seemingly saying what he believes. Whether this has been a strategic move by his campaign team or if it is really just who he is, none of us really know yet but it has been interesting.

I'm going to be honest here where I heard his comments I was nodding my head. Obviously not every working class American is bitter and clings to things like guns and religion but having spent time in industrial, "working-class" areas I don't think it is an unfair statement either. What do you guys think?

Sunday, April 13, 2008

Clinton, Obama Discuss Faith

Today, at Messiah College Obama and Clinton spent their time at the forum talking about religion. This campaign season, religion has taken a major role as candidates Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Barack Obama each have had to address their religious faith on several occasions. Clinton made sure to highlight her religious faith by telling Campbell Brown and Jon Meacham, "I don't think that I could have made my life's journey without being anchored in God's grace and without having that, you know, sense of forgiveness and unconditional love.” This seems to be referring to her husband’s affair in the White House, allowing her to address that issue while playing up her faith. In response, Obama shared his views that religion is “a foundation when other things aren't going well. That's true in my own life, through trials and tribulations." He also addressed the issue of his religious faith saying, "I am a devout Christian ... I started my work working with churches in the shadow of steel plants that had closed on the south side of Chicago ...Nobody in a presidential campaign on the Democratic side in recent memory has done more to reach out to the church and talk about, what are our obligations religiously, in terms of doing good works." This definitely makes him stand out from Clinton by pointing out that he has gone farther than anyone else has in a very long time when it comes to religion and faith, in regards to the candidates. With only 9 days left until Pennsylvania, Obama still needs to convert Hilary supporters if he wishes to win the state.

CNN report y Rebecca Sinderbrand

A New Kind of (Bitter) Politics

April 11th Senator Obama made the mistake of calling small town Americans “bitter.” While attempting to frame the previous two administrations, including President Bush and President Clinton, in a bad light, Senator Obama spoke of the small towns in Pennsylvania and the Midwest and the lack of jobs over the past 25 years. Apparently he does not find it surprising that these communities “get bitter… cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.” (HuffingtonPost.com)

His rhetoric is more than an insult to small town Americans. It’s also an explanation for conservatives in the small towns who don’t trust or believe in the liberal Democratic way. He is trying to explain away religious conservatism with a passing of blame to previous administrations. He makes it sound as though there is a fundamental flaw with America and that he is the only one who can fix it.

Senator Obama has run a positive campaign so far, speaking vaguely of hope and the future. This is the first negative theme he has introduced, and I’m wondering if the pressure of the campaign is getting to him. To make such a mistake days before the next big primary is a major error. I doubt people will appreciate a snobby Presidential candidate who believes a part of his constituency is bitter and therefore makes mistakes in conservative ideology.

Watch your words, Senator Obama. People are so used to picking apart what you say that giving them an opening like this is like telling a struggling addict that it’s okay to use again. Stick with hope and positivity- it’ll carry you further than insults.

Senator Clinton has stayed up way past her bedtime

Last Thursday in Boonville, IN, former President Bill Clinton attempted to promote his wife and addressed the incident when Senator Hillary Clinton “misspoke” regarding her arrival under sniper fire in Bosnia in 1995. He made excuses for her, explaining that she had been speaking late at night (around 11 PM), was exhausted, and had apologized for her mistake immediately after. Unfortunately, these excuses did not alleviate the situation because of a number of mistakes in his argument and some unintended inferences.

-Senator Clinton’s trip to Bosnia was in 1996, not 1995.
-She did not make the sniper fire claim just once at 11 PM, but a number of times, and had exaggerated the story each time.
-She did not immediately apologize for it and only acknowledged the mistake once the video of her not-so-dangerous arrival was released.

It’s unfortunate as well that Senator Clinton misspoke at 11 PM, especially since she promises to be alert and ready for duty at any time- specifically at 3 AM, which is only 4 hours later.

Well, Senator Clinton. With all due respect, I believe you’ve stayed awake past your bedtime. Please get some rest and drop out of the race! You’ll thank me in the long run.

Friday, April 11, 2008

Obama Speaks Out to LGBT Community

Democratic Presidential Candidate Barack Obama sat down this week for an interview with the leading LGBT news magazine, The Advocate. The interview was, as the magazine notes, only his second discussion with a news source in the gay community since he began running for President. (The magazine notes that Hillary Clinton, however, had already appeared in their publication the previous fall, as well as on the gay cable channel Logo, and in various other news sources). His silence was discussed right off the bat, as the first question focused on his feelings toward the community and the press that covers it. Obama framed his absence from the gay press as resulting from his strategy to speak to larger, broader publications and media outlets. He said he wanted to focus on reaching the most people possible with the interviews he granted, while he also wanted to discuss LGBT issues in a more general and public manner, like at campaign rallies, rather than just within the confines of a "gay" sit-down interview. He argued that by speaking to the most people about the issues affecting the LGBT community and by making it an issue he discussed within the frame of general social discrimination and acceptance on the campaign trail, he could affect more individuals and open more minds to these issues. His answer really does speak to the broad themes of his candidacy, as he doesn't just want to be the "black candidate" or speak to an African American audience, or any specific audience for that matter. His language speaks to broad inclusion and addresses individuals of all types, and if voters hear him denouncing homophobia in black churches and in the black community because of how it ostracizes LGBT citizens, then he is rightfully seen as trying to bring in even more segments of the society into his campaign.

He acknowledges in this interview that he takes a risk by talking about "gay issues" to a larger audience that isn't necessarily there to hear that side of what Democrats stand for, but he says that gay equality is an important issue to him and that his strategy is the best way to bring about real change. Obama makes a good point here, I think, as he explains that "It’s easy to preach to the choir; what I think is harder is to speak to a broader audience about why these issues are important to all Americans."

As for his specific plans to help the LGBT community if elected President, he plans to eliminate the "don't ask, don't tell" policy that has barred openly-gay individuals from serving in the military. He argues that this policy has been counterproductive and a waste of time, energy, and money, as a great number of valuable and talented men and women have been passed over because of their sexuality. He also wants to pass the "Employment Non-Discrimination Act," make sure that federal employees can transfer their health or pension benefits to their partners, and make federal benefits fully available to same-sex couples who are in a civil union. He is a strong advocate of repealing the "Defense of Marriage Act" as well. However, the word "marriage" is still not one that Obama wants to push for same-sex couples, at least in terms of federal legislation, as he believes it would prevent real progress from occurring in Congress, as, no matter what his opinion is, it would be almost impossible for Congress to agree on a topic as controversial as allowing same-sex couples to marry. Civil unions are doable, Obama argues, and he says that his focus is on producing results for the LGBT community. This guides much of his thinking on these issues because he wants to produce legislation that is passable, as he thinks, for example, that transgender-inclusive legislation would also be a deal breaker for many in Congress.

More than anything, Obama wants to create a conversation during his campaign amongst all types of Americans about how to improve this country. He values opposite beliefs and opinions and likes that he is attracting all sorts of people to his campaign events. This begins a national discussion, he believes, and by speaking on a broad stage to so many different groups, he is trying to redefine America itself. He knows how racism is still alive in parts of this country and that attitudes toward race and sexuality are slow to change, and he comes into the fight for gay rights armed with the knowledge of how long a road it is toward true equality. Obama considers himself a leader on issues important to the LGBT community, but he does not claim to offer all of the solutions himself. He is merely offering us the chance to come together as a nation, discuss these issues that are significant to so many, and work out solutions that ensure an equal voice and equal place for all.

The power of Youtube

When I was checking my celeb gossip this morning on thedirty.com, I found a post about Obama. There is a video from Youtube, posted back in March, in which a man claims that back in 1999 he and Obama shared a limo and drank together, Obama provided the two with cocaine and crack and then the man gave Obama oral sex. He said their interaction lasted a few more days, as they met in hotel rooms in Illinois. He finishes his video by challenging Obama to come out and tell the truth about what happened.
After I googled this incident to see if it was anywhere else, I could not find much about it. This video proves that Youtube gives people a lot more power than they should have. In this age of technology and, unfortunately, laziness, people who come across this video may take it as truth and not do any background research on it. What I want to know is whether Youtube will end up having a positive or negative effect on a candidate's success.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVeFVtcdSYY

Tuesday, April 8, 2008

It's About Time the Nations Youth Speaks Up

Members of Generation X and Y have been criticized time and again for their apathy towards politics. People compare them to their politically active parents better known as the Baby Boomers. Baby Boomers rallied against the Vietnam war and fought for Civil Rights, yet the young adults of today have been largely absent from American politics. Many thought the war in Iraq would increase their political interest because young soldiers were going off to war. Yet, there were not demonstrations like those seen during the Vietnam War. While there are many reasons this occurred, again American's youth was criticized. Additionally, young Americans have had a dismal showing during election time. With low percentages showing up to vote, organizations have formed trying to mobilize the young vote. Yet, there has been little success and many politicians have targeted older age groups.

However, Barack Obama decided to attempt to mobilize these youngsters. Realizing the amount of strength young Americans had, Obama launched YouTube videos and websites that would appeal to youngsters. He encouraged the youth to persuade their parents to vote for him. His charisma speaks to the youth of this country and many kids and young adults are stepping up, encouraging their parents to vote Obama.

Is Obama the solution to youth political apathy? Will he finally bring life to a voice America has been waiting to hear from? Is the youth of America only motivated for the election? Will they disappear again come November?

There are a lot of unanswered questions, but it is nice to see the youth finally trying to make a difference.

For more information see:

MSNBC: Obama’s young backers twist parents’ arms

NY Times: Young Obama Backers Twist Parents’ Arms

Manipulation of Events?

In reading through political news of the past week, one of the topics that came to my head is the potential of the GOP to alter the direction of events, namely in regards to the economy and Iraq, immediately before the election in a last ditch effort to make a huge difference. A study released this week showed that the highest levels of violence in Iraq around that time period were right before the election. Perhaps that would make Bush look weak but it could also be used to persuade voters that a strong President is needed. I see much of the same shaping up for this election. With the economy teetering on the brink of full-blown recession, democrats are calling for more stimulus measures while Republicans are saying that the first stimulus checks have not been sent out yet. While this is obviously an exaggeration, what happens if the checks arrive the week before the election? That would probably convince more than a few people to Republican. Likewise, events in Iraq could likely be manipulated, for better or worse, to help meet GOP needs as the election looms. While this might be a bit of a “conspiracy theory,” it is certainly interesting to think about the steps parties will take to try to portray events in their favor.

Hoping these candidates actually deliver on their promises

We have spoken for months about the importance of this election, and I just hope we make the right decisions when determining our candidates for the presidency, and ultimately our president. I was watching BET the other day, and Usher was being interviewed. Instead of asking the generic questions about his new music first, he was asked why he supported Obama. He said that Obama seems best suited to take this country in the right direction. I'm probably one of the few Democrats still really torn about who would be a better candidate, but I do think that Obama has a lot of promises to keep if he is elected into office.

Every candidate makes promises, but I think considering the importance of this campaign, the promises are even more important. Obama has been heralded as a great uniter of the people, a voice of change. It is a fresh and inspiring perspective, and one that could be amazing for our country in theory. I just worry about his ability to deliver on his promises. I hope we can unify and I hope we can be a better nation both within our borders and to the world as a whole, but we've been duped by poetic words in the past.

All we have right now is time and time only brings more questions. Every week the media digs up new information to skew a voter's opinion of a candidate. I hope that we have some honest candidates this time around.

This is just the opinion of one very idealistic young voter. I can dream can't I?

Obama Pro-Gun?

Talking to the crowds in rural Pennsylvania, Obama tried to downplay his record of voting for the gun-control bills, and tried to reposition himself as being a pro-gun activist. Several democratic surrogates from Pennsylvania who are also pro-gun helped him in securing contact with the rural population. By assuming the popular position regardless of the fact that it contradicts his personal belief and voting record to win a particular segment of the population, Sen. Obama can make angry bigger groups of his devoted supporters, such as women and urban voters. Moreover, if he actually becomes a Democratic nominee, Republicans are very likely to use this policy switch example and portray Obama as a flip flopper. Even though appealing to a variety of voters is very important for the candidate to win the Presidential Nomination, a candidate has to pick and chooses his battles carefully and realize that he or she could not possibly be popular with everyone. Otherwise, the candidate may be perceived as a crowd pleaser and a flip flopper, which could be a disaster to his or her image.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9398.html

Babies for...

...Obama, McCain and Hillary! This is a cute package from CNN's Jeanine Moos on the Youtube phenomenon of babies for presidential candidates. Apparently there are a lot more 'Babies for Obama' videos out there, but according to the report, it's probably because the syllables 'ba' and 'ma' are a lot easier for babies to say. This video is a cute cross-section of politics and technology.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=WBuEqzGm3VA

Monday, April 7, 2008

Condoleeza Rice for VP?

I heard on the news that there has been speculation about Condoleeza Rice running on the Republican ticket as Vice President. While McCain says that he has not heard anything about this, others are saying that this might be a positive boost to his campaign. Speculators explain that she would be a good vice president and could aid in defeating the democratic opponent. Because issues of gender and race have played a huge role in this year’s campaign, many think that Condoleeza will help defend Republicans in attacks that they are insensitive to these groups. It will also make things more even if there are minorities running in both parties so that neither has an edge against the other. I disagree with focusing on race and gender to win an election, but agree with the idea that no matter a person’s race or gender, we must elect the person who is best equipped to run and lead our country.

Meet Bob Barr

It may seem a little late in the game for new players to be entering the race, but we must remember that the Democratic and Republican Parties aren't the only ones choosing a nominee for November. Last weekend, former GOP Congressman Bob Barr announced the launch of a Presidential Exploratory Committee to kick off his pursuit of the Libertarian Party's nomination.

Barr's political reputation is that of a staunch advocate for civil liberties, limited government, low taxes, and secure borders; he likely hopes to provide an alternative for conservative Republicans who might feel that McCain falls short of their expectations. Barr acknowledged that some might view him as a would-be "spoiler," but said that the stakes are too high to let political expediency prevent his run. Barr stated: "America today faces a grave moral and leadership crisis, and those of us who care about our country's future can no longer sit on the sidelines and remain neutral."

A Representative of Georgia's 7th District from 1995 to 2003, Barr has since joined the Libertarian Party because, according to bobbarr2008.com, he felt it was important to align himself with "a party that is 100 percent committed to protecting liberty." In 1986, Barr was appointed by President Reagan to serve as U.S. Attorney for Northern Georgia. He was also a CIA official for 8 years during the '70s. He is a current Board Member of the National Rifle Association. As an attorney and consultant, Barr has focused his efforts on advancing the principles of smaller government, lower taxes, and abundant individual freedom.

Clearly, Barr's conservative cred is solid, but it remains to be seen how viable his candidacy will be in the current climate. Might Ron Paul supporters rally behind Barr, since the candidates share many positions? Will many McCain voters embrace him as a candidate that better fits their ideals, or would the prospect of a Democratic victory inspire enough distaste to keep those voters with the guy who has a real shot? Ralph Nader will grapple with a similar conundrum on the other side. With polls indicating that the general election will be a close contest, it's worth keeping an eye on these third party candidates to anticipate what effect, if any, they might have on the ultimate outcome.