One of the theories we have discussed throughout the class this semester has been the importance of the managing expectations within campaigns. The past few months have arguably seen Obama emerge as the frontrunner, albeit by a thin margin. March fundraising numbers show that he once again massively out-raised Clinton and the impact is being seen by things like Obama outspending Clinton 5 to 1 in television time in Pennsylvania. That being said, the frontrunner expectations will play an important role in the rest of the primaries. Clinton mitigating a loss in Pennsylvania could be seen as a win. Likewise, these sort of victories-in-defeat (or vice versa) may play an important role in trying to shift the large number of remaining super delegates. Hillary’s recent strategy of claiming Obama can’t win (and then backing off of it) also clearly plays into the idea of figuring out who is a frontrunner and then playing on America’s willingness to see frontrunners fall.
These articles helped contribute:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9368.html
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9375.html
1 comment:
I agree that expectations and front-runner status have been important to the Democratic race thus far. I also think that Obama has emerged as a front-runner more than by just a thin margin, at least recently. While the popular votes and delegates may show a relatively close race, I think his frontrunner status is strong in the minds of most voters and pundits. There has been little doubt as to who has been leading this race since mid to late February, and I think Obama has been effective recently at making his nomination seem inevitable.
Fund raising numbers don't lie, like you said, and his support is really massive, no matter how you measure it. I also agree that Clinton will be sure to mention how outspent and out-canvassed she was by Obama's team if she ends up taking Pennsylvania from him. She's able to argue that the odds were not in her favor, despite the demographic evidence that would say otherwise. I think this argument becomes pretty effective if her margin of victory in Pennsylvania is significant, as this would clearly indicate some type of rejection of the frontrunner and his money. For Obama, he has such high expectations to finally close out the race soon that he may be hurt by small victories or large defeats.
I do think superdelegates will be quick to act if Obama's frontrunner status is confirmed by the upcoming primaries, but I don't think missing expectations will sway them one way or another to a significant degree. America may like an underdog, but to some Clinton no longer seems like an underdog deserving of our pity. She may knock the frontrunner down for a while, but it'll be hard for her to turn the race around completely.
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