Managing expectations is an important concept that we have talked about number of times throughout the course. Effectively mastering this tactic is invaluable—it can easily allow campaigns to spin losses as wins (or vice versa if not handled properly). The quickly approaching primary in Pennsylvania is an excellent example of the importance of creating expectations. Today on KDKA radio in Pittsburg, Obama told voters, “I’m not predicting a win. I’m predicting it’s going to be close and that we are going to do a lot better than people expect.” With Hillary’s initial lead in Pennsylvania somewhere around 16 percent, recent polls are suggesting it is somewhere closer to 5 percent. While there is a strong chance that Hillary will win Pennsylvania, it is entirely a question of degree. Headlines on websites like Bloomberg are currently arguing that Hillary will need both a record turnout and record margins to have a shot at winning the race. One of the best ways that Obama can ensure that this does not occur is to make it appear like Hillary is not controlling the momentum. As the California primary helped illustrate, even if it looks like Obama is slashing leads there remains a strong possibility that Hillary will state dominate states that were considered controlled by her. It will be interesting to see how everything plays out.
Relevant citations
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0408/Obama_Im_not_predicting_a_win.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2IYkr2D8ZGk&refer=worldwide
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2 comments:
It will be interesting to see what happens if the race is not close as to what Obama has said. Is he measuring closer against the 16% initial lead or the 5% lead reported in recent days?
It is evident that it is not enough for Hillary just to win PA, she needs more than 10% lead to prove that she is competent and capable of competing. As you mentioned, adjusting expectations is the key strategy for Clinton to win at this point, so the polls showing her lead as only 5% published couple of days before primaries is the best she could hope for. Seeing such a small margin, her supporters would be more motivated to go and vote for her making sure that this margin widens. I am so curious to see if all that money spent will bring results to the candidates.
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