The Politics of North Carolina

The phrase "all politics is local" certainly applies to this year's Democratic Primary, as nearly every corner of the country will have been covered by the time this process (finally) ends, whether it be in May, June, or beyond. For me, having lived all my life prior to college in North Carolina, it's exciting to watch as the political spotlight finally returns to my home state, allowing North Carolinians the chance to play a major role in national politics.

North Carolina overall is a very odd state politically. It tends to vote Democratic in state races, as voters have elected a Democratic majority to the state Senate for more than 100 years, and Democratic governors have enjoyed great success over many decades recently, while voting Republican for President. The last Democratic Presidential candidate to win North Carolina was Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter who swept most of the South back in 1976. Senate races are the most confusing of all, as a liberal populist like John Edwards can win his seat rather easily at the same time as Jesse Helms, one of the most conservative men in America, is also enjoying great popularity.

North Carolina has roughly 9 million people, which makes it the 10th largest state in the US. Recent economic troubles have seen manufacturing and textile jobs leave the state in record numbers, while the banking capital of Charlotte continues to play a major role internationally. Two major military installations, Marine Corps' Camp Lejeune and the Army's Fort Bragg, have played a major role in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and, as a result, a large number of casualties have originated from these bases.

The outgoing governor, Mike Easley, and former Senator John Edwards have refused to endorse either Clinton or Obama, but Obama still enjoys a sizable lead among those superdelegates in the state who have already indicated their preference. Obama is leading in all recent polls taken in the state as well, in most by a large margin, and averages a double-digit advantage at this point, according to Real Clear Politics. Obama also raised nearly three times as much money from NC donors as Clinton did in the month of March, illustrating once more that Clinton faces an uphill battle in the state on May 6 to continue the momentum she gained by winning the Pennsylvania primary.

The two leading Democratic candidates for NC Governor, Bev Perdue and Richard Moore, have also endorsed Obama and used the candidate as a central part of their campaign advertisements. In response, on Monday the North Carolina GOP will begin running an ad against the two Democrats that attacks their support for Obama based on Obama's connection to Rev. Wright. The ad was posted online Wednesday, quickly rising to the #1 most viewed video on the internet because of its"controversial" strategy to bring Rev. Wright, and possibly the issue of race, back into the mix of this election. Senator McCain and the national GOP party asked the state party to not air the ad for these reasons, but in the truly unpredictable nature of North Carolina politics, the NC GOP party chairwoman is aggressively moving forward with this line of attack. What effect the ad, and the large amount of attention surrounding it, may have on the primary or general election will be interesting to follow.

If Obama is to win the Democratic primary on May 6, as most experts expect he will, it may help bring the primary season to an end, also depending on how the voting goes in Indiana on the same day. Looking forward to the general election in November, no one knows if Obama will be able to make the state a competitive battleground, but a shift from Republican to Democratic would be substantial. The state's 15 electoral votes could be up for grabs, according to Electoral-Vote.com, as the site has the state as a firm toss up at the moment based on the most recent polling, showing that if all the polling data was accurate, an Obama-McCain race would be decided by whoever wins the Tarheel State. Obviously it's too early to know which states will prove decisive this fall, but with the rising numbers of registered NC Democrats, the popularity Obama enjoys among college-aged youth, and the swirling controversy over the GOP's use of an anti-Rev. Wright ad, the election this fall could provide North Carolina with an even greater amount of political power. For the sake of an interesting race this fall, and many interesting home state storylines, here's hoping that North Carolina remains politically competitive for quite some time.