Tuesday, April 22, 2008

In the PA Race it is the Margin of Victory that Matters

Many political analysts predict that Senator Clinton will win the state of Pennsylvania. However, winning the state may not be a political victory. If Clinton fails to have a large margin of victory (by at least 10 points), it may be time for her to throw in the towel in this dragged out Democratic Primary. The 300 uncommitted superdelegates will break down this primary with a fine tooth comb. Pennsylvania is Clinton's demographic main turf. Failure to take this state by a large margin would show her loss of momentum with the lower-income Democrats who supported her in earlier elections. Clinton does not see the importance of Margin of Victory. "A win is a win," to her, but is this really just another one of her attempts to hold onto a race already lost?

I cannot wait and see what happens today. With PA looking for a record turnout in voters, it will be interesting to see who those that do not usually vote choose. For the Democratic party, I hope that this primary leaves them with some kind of direction. If we move into May and June with no clear Democratic candidate, there could be dire consequences for the party. In my opinion (although it might be biased as an Obama supporter), feels like it would be better for the party as a whole if Clinton did not gain a large margin of victory in PA or if Obama won PA. Then, the Democratic party could finally move forward, unite the party, and try to regain the White House in November.

Cafferty: Should Clinton quit if she doesn't win Pennsylvania by at least 10 points?
LAT: What to look for in the Pennsylvania primary
LAT: Clinton says margin won't matter

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