In the PA Race it is the Margin of Victory that Matters

Many political analysts predict that Senator Clinton will win the state of Pennsylvania. However, winning the state may not be a political victory. If Clinton fails to have a large margin of victory (by at least 10 points), it may be time for her to throw in the towel in this dragged out Democratic Primary. The 300 uncommitted superdelegates will break down this primary with a fine tooth comb. Pennsylvania is Clinton's demographic main turf. Failure to take this state by a large margin would show her loss of momentum with the lower-income Democrats who supported her in earlier elections. Clinton does not see the importance of Margin of Victory. "A win is a win," to her, but is this really just another one of her attempts to hold onto a race already lost?

I cannot wait and see what happens today. With PA looking for a record turnout in voters, it will be interesting to see who those that do not usually vote choose. For the Democratic party, I hope that this primary leaves them with some kind of direction. If we move into May and June with no clear Democratic candidate, there could be dire consequences for the party. In my opinion (although it might be biased as an Obama supporter), feels like it would be better for the party as a whole if Clinton did not gain a large margin of victory in PA or if Obama won PA. Then, the Democratic party could finally move forward, unite the party, and try to regain the White House in November.

Cafferty: Should Clinton quit if she doesn't win Pennsylvania by at least 10 points?
LAT: What to look for in the Pennsylvania primary
LAT: Clinton says margin won't matter

Managing Expectations

Managing expectations is an important concept that we have talked about number of times throughout the course. Effectively mastering this tactic is invaluable—it can easily allow campaigns to spin losses as wins (or vice versa if not handled properly). The quickly approaching primary in Pennsylvania is an excellent example of the importance of creating expectations. Today on KDKA radio in Pittsburg, Obama told voters, “I’m not predicting a win. I’m predicting it’s going to be close and that we are going to do a lot better than people expect.” With Hillary’s initial lead in Pennsylvania somewhere around 16 percent, recent polls are suggesting it is somewhere closer to 5 percent. While there is a strong chance that Hillary will win Pennsylvania, it is entirely a question of degree. Headlines on websites like Bloomberg are currently arguing that Hillary will need both a record turnout and record margins to have a shot at winning the race. One of the best ways that Obama can ensure that this does not occur is to make it appear like Hillary is not controlling the momentum. As the California primary helped illustrate, even if it looks like Obama is slashing leads there remains a strong possibility that Hillary will state dominate states that were considered controlled by her. It will be interesting to see how everything plays out.


Relevant citations
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0408/Obama_Im_not_predicting_a_win.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2IYkr2D8ZGk&refer=worldwide

Swan Song for Somebody?

With the Pennsylvania primary happening tomorrow (FINALLY!!!), will whomever loses bow out of the race? We know that both candidates have pledged to stay in the race through the last primaries, but if somebody loses by double digits tomorrow, do you think it would be a good time for them to bow out?

I think that if the difference in percentage points between the two candidates is less than double digits, both Obama and Clinton should stay in, though that would be much to my chagrin, as I'm tiring of the process at this point. However, a double digit win in PA could swing the momentum heavily to one candidate, and minus anymore gaffes, could be the nail in the coffin for the loser.

So could tomorrow be the time to throw in the towel? Thoughts?

Rocky Balboa against African-American

With the upcoming primary in Pennsylvania, observers are looking for a disappearing category of people in polls: white men. The reason is that for the first of his history, the Democratic Party is going to nominate either a woman or an African-American man. Consequently, polls have focused on African-American voters as well as on women voters. In Pennsylvania, white men could make the difference next Tuesday, so that reporters are spread all over the state, searching for white men to interview. As Gail Collins wrote in her New York Times article, courting white men is not easier for the candidates. “The candidates’ desperation to make contact is showing. Barack Obama goes bowling in Altoona – with disastrous consequences. Hillary Clinton attempts to compare herself to Rocky Balboa prompting many people to note that Rocky lost to a black guy. Obama, rather cruelly, points out that Rocky is a fictional character. Clinton, in turn, reveals that she owns her own bowling ball…”
When one asks which discourse could seduce white men voters, commentators answer “maybe not change […] Pennsylvania is a state where change has not been a friend to your average white male, particularly the aging working-class ones who are the candidates’ prime target. Change left the state full of empty factories that towns keep desperately trying to make into condos or art museums.” In Pennsylvania, change pledged by Obama made white men victims, who saw part of their culture taken away. The dilemma of this election is that traditional democratic voters may be turn away from their traditional vote because of the choice offered. This may benefit the Republican Party which nominated a candidate from the majority… a white man.