If Hillary has a poor showing today, when should she bow out, or should she bow out at all? I was having a conversation with friends about this yesterday, and they said that even if Hillary loses all four states today, she should stay until the end because of what she represents to so many people. Others said that she should bow out if she loses today so that she stays in step with campaign etiquette/protocol, and so that she won't be remembered as the "woman who doesn't know when to hang 'em up." The following NYT article indicates that Clinton (as of now) plans to go down fighting, but is this the best strategy for her and her legacy?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/04/us/politics/04cnd-campaign.html?_r=1&nl=pol&emc=pol&oref=slogin
Showing posts with label Ohio. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ohio. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
CLINTON, OBAMA FACE DAY OF RECKONING
In the New York Post article, “CLINTON, OBAMA FACE DAY OF RECKONING,” by Tom Raum, an Associated Press Writer, the last day before the March 4th Super Tuesday is recapped discussing the events of each candidate. Hillary Clinton is cited saying “I’m just getting warmed up” with Raum concluding that she “expects to press the campaign on beyond Tuesday no matter the outcome” (Raum). This is contradicted by Obama’s campaign manager David Plouffe calling Tuesday “the last big window of opportunity" for Clinton, noting that "enormous leads" she enjoyed as recently as two weeks ago had dwindled or evaporated.”
It seems it is a little late for Hillary to just be getting warmed up, as we are now into March. In addition, her strong leads on Obama in Ohio and Texas have diminished to a few points, if any lead still exists at all. In this sense, Plouffe, along with many others, makes a valid point that this is Hillary’s last chance. If she cannot pull it together March 4th, she cannot possibly win the nomination. But even if she wins both Texas and Ohio, she will need to win by 65% in each state to obtain the nomination. If she just barely wins, then she will serve to pause Obama’s momentum with the race being back at a new square one. It will be interesting to see if more former candidates get involved in endorsing after March 4th if the race is still up in the air.
Associated Press writer Mike Glover in Houston contributed to this report.
It seems it is a little late for Hillary to just be getting warmed up, as we are now into March. In addition, her strong leads on Obama in Ohio and Texas have diminished to a few points, if any lead still exists at all. In this sense, Plouffe, along with many others, makes a valid point that this is Hillary’s last chance. If she cannot pull it together March 4th, she cannot possibly win the nomination. But even if she wins both Texas and Ohio, she will need to win by 65% in each state to obtain the nomination. If she just barely wins, then she will serve to pause Obama’s momentum with the race being back at a new square one. It will be interesting to see if more former candidates get involved in endorsing after March 4th if the race is still up in the air.
Associated Press writer Mike Glover in Houston contributed to this report.
Sunday, March 2, 2008
Hillary Clinton must channel another NY hero, Eli Manning
My post is inspired by a blog entry written by Dan Schnur, GOP political communications consultant / Annenberg adjunct faculty member:
http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02/28/why-im-afraid-of-the-clintons/?em&ex=1204434000&en=8141ddc003071ab1&ei=5070.
In his post, titled “Why I’m Afraid of the Clintons,” Schnur warns that Hillary can’t be counted out yet, especially considering her family’s history of rebounding from seemingly insurmountable setbacks. He claims that he would rather face Obama than Clinton in a general election—contrary to many Republicans’ leanings—simply because the Clintons’ well-documented will to win and political shrewdness always presents a daunting challenge.
One thing that strikes me in this entry is Schnur’s use of sports comparisons; as a Packers fan, he likens the Clintons to the Cowboys—a team he never wants to go up against. He hopes that another team (Obama) can take out this formidable opponent (Clinton) in the playoffs (primaries) so his team (McCain) won’t have to face them in the championship (general election). It’s a solid metaphor, though sometimes I question the value of such comparisons—are they just for fun or do they demonstrate something significant?
Either way, sports terminology abounds in coverage of this campaign: horseracing, boxing, football…it’s just too easy. Today on CNN’s “Ballot Bowl” (the program’s name itself a reference to athletics), I heard one commentator liken Hillary Clinton to Eli Manning, New York’s heroic quarterback who pulled off a very unlikely Super Bowl win in a do-or-die drive in the game's final minutes. Appearing on Letterman the night after the Super Bowl, Clinton herself said she took a lot of heart from the Giants’ fourth quarter performance. Can Hillary summon a highlight-reel showing this Tuesday and keep her Presidential hopes alive? Or will the rookie’s Cinderella story go the distance?
The way I see it, the clock is about to expire and Hillary is trusting Ohio and Texas with the ball; they must score in order to send the race into overtime—otherwise, game over.
http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02/28/why-im-afraid-of-the-clintons/?em&ex=1204434000&en=8141ddc003071ab1&ei=5070.
In his post, titled “Why I’m Afraid of the Clintons,” Schnur warns that Hillary can’t be counted out yet, especially considering her family’s history of rebounding from seemingly insurmountable setbacks. He claims that he would rather face Obama than Clinton in a general election—contrary to many Republicans’ leanings—simply because the Clintons’ well-documented will to win and political shrewdness always presents a daunting challenge.
One thing that strikes me in this entry is Schnur’s use of sports comparisons; as a Packers fan, he likens the Clintons to the Cowboys—a team he never wants to go up against. He hopes that another team (Obama) can take out this formidable opponent (Clinton) in the playoffs (primaries) so his team (McCain) won’t have to face them in the championship (general election). It’s a solid metaphor, though sometimes I question the value of such comparisons—are they just for fun or do they demonstrate something significant?
Either way, sports terminology abounds in coverage of this campaign: horseracing, boxing, football…it’s just too easy. Today on CNN’s “Ballot Bowl” (the program’s name itself a reference to athletics), I heard one commentator liken Hillary Clinton to Eli Manning, New York’s heroic quarterback who pulled off a very unlikely Super Bowl win in a do-or-die drive in the game's final minutes. Appearing on Letterman the night after the Super Bowl, Clinton herself said she took a lot of heart from the Giants’ fourth quarter performance. Can Hillary summon a highlight-reel showing this Tuesday and keep her Presidential hopes alive? Or will the rookie’s Cinderella story go the distance?
The way I see it, the clock is about to expire and Hillary is trusting Ohio and Texas with the ball; they must score in order to send the race into overtime—otherwise, game over.
Super Tuesday II: The Beginning of the End?
This coming Tuesday will mark the second largest delegate day of the primary season, behind only "Super Tuesday" of a month ago, as 444 delegates will be decided (or 11% of the total number of delegates). It's undeniably a major moment in the primary campaign, and, as has become clear over the past few weeks, it has to be a major turning point for Hillary Clinton if she has any chance of gaining the Democratic nomination for President. The scene is set for one of several possible scenarios to occur:
Scenario 1: Hillary wins both Ohio and Texas.
In this scenario, Hillary is able to stop Barack Obama's 11-contest winning streak and reclaim the momentum of the primary season. She is also able to correctly claim that she has won almost every major state that has held a contest thus far, on both coasts, and states that will be key to the election of a Democrat in November. Her campaign will gain new life, new questions will be raised about Obama's ability to seal the deal, and the race will move on to the remaining smaller March contests, as well as the upcoming votes in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. This is a scenario that shows that Democrats still have significant doubts about Senator Obama and his ability to lead, and this is the scenario that Republicans would like the most, given how it would lead to a more drawn-out contest for the Democratic nomination and the chance to campaign directly against Senator McCain. Hidden in this scenario, however, is the real possibility that Clinton may "win" Texas by getting more votes overall than Obama, but may lose the delegate race in the state due to how and where the delegates are allocated, including the fact that Texas uses a caucus to allocate many of its delegates. Therefore, "winning" Texas may not be a victory for her campaign overall and the race for the nomination, unless she is able to spin the story in her favor as a result of getting the most votes in these two major contests. And even if she wins both contests outright, she still may not be able to significantly close the delegate gap between herself and Senator Obama, but at least she earns the right to fight on.
Scenario 2: Hillary wins Ohio, loses Texas.
Looking at the most recent polls in both states, this scenario, for the time being, appears to be the most likely. Clinton continues to hold a lead in Ohio, although it has been reduced quite substantially over the past few weeks, and Obama has moved slightly ahead of her in Texas, though this race is very tight overall. Winning one of two may not be good enough for her to claim that she is still in a good position to continue on and win the nomination. She will have stopped Obama's winning streak in this scenario, but winning one major contest in a month, with the next major contest not for one and a half more months, may seem like too little too late. President Clinton has said in campaign speeches recently that voters in Ohio and Texas must come out and deliver for his wife, or else she can't be the Democratic nominee. This seems to clearly indicate that a split decision in a race that's quickly getting away from Hillary Clinton will not do enough to turn the primary season around in her favor. She will surely have a harder decision to make about whether or not to drop out than she would if she ends up losing both contests, since she was once again victorious in a major state, but the chorus of major Democrats will most likely be loud and unrelenting, urging her to end her campaign as soon as possible. They have, in fact, already begun to express this sentiment, as the New York Times writes today about those who have already come out, many on Sunday morning talk shows, to discuss how Clinton must leave the race if she is unsuccessful on Tuesday. Governor Bill Richardson said that "D-Day is Tuesday" and that, for the sake of party unity and victory over Senator McCain, whoever has the "clear lead" after that day should be the nominee. Senator Dick Durbin said there must be a "measurable change" on Tuesday in order for Clinton to remain in the race. And Senator John Kerry commented that "Hillary Clinton has to win a big victory in both Ohio and Texas" if she wants to have any real chance of winning the nomination. It may not be an immediate decision for Senator Clinton, given how much she has achieved and how long she has fought, but the expectation is that under this scenario, she will not press on with her campaign into April in Pennsylvania.
Scenario 3: Hillary loses both Ohio and Texas.
This, undoubtedly, would lead to Senator Clinton's suspension of her campaign, it would have to be assumed. This would mean that Clinton had now lost 13 contests in a row (or possibly even more, given the two other states that are also voting on Tuesday), and nothing would be on her side--not money, not momentum, not the calendar, and not uncommitted Democrats. It would almost certainly be time for her to drop out of the race and rally behind Senator Obama. Her chances of catching up to Senator Obama in terms of pledged delegates selected through primaries and caucuses would be impossible, and it would be impossible to see Super Delegates interested in coming to her rescue at this point, as they would be going against the will of the majority of voters and states. Leading Democrats, like those mentioned in the New York Times article, would be out in full force to urge an end to the race for the nomination and Clinton's exit, if Clinton did not first call it quits on her own, seemingly within the first 48 hours after Tuesday night's results. This would be the end of the road for her campaign.
What do you think Senator Clinton is most likely to do after Tuesday if she wins just one of these major contests? How will she go about leaving the race, and when? And what kind of story will it be if she does manage to win both Ohio and Texas?
Scenario 1: Hillary wins both Ohio and Texas.
In this scenario, Hillary is able to stop Barack Obama's 11-contest winning streak and reclaim the momentum of the primary season. She is also able to correctly claim that she has won almost every major state that has held a contest thus far, on both coasts, and states that will be key to the election of a Democrat in November. Her campaign will gain new life, new questions will be raised about Obama's ability to seal the deal, and the race will move on to the remaining smaller March contests, as well as the upcoming votes in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. This is a scenario that shows that Democrats still have significant doubts about Senator Obama and his ability to lead, and this is the scenario that Republicans would like the most, given how it would lead to a more drawn-out contest for the Democratic nomination and the chance to campaign directly against Senator McCain. Hidden in this scenario, however, is the real possibility that Clinton may "win" Texas by getting more votes overall than Obama, but may lose the delegate race in the state due to how and where the delegates are allocated, including the fact that Texas uses a caucus to allocate many of its delegates. Therefore, "winning" Texas may not be a victory for her campaign overall and the race for the nomination, unless she is able to spin the story in her favor as a result of getting the most votes in these two major contests. And even if she wins both contests outright, she still may not be able to significantly close the delegate gap between herself and Senator Obama, but at least she earns the right to fight on.
Scenario 2: Hillary wins Ohio, loses Texas.
Looking at the most recent polls in both states, this scenario, for the time being, appears to be the most likely. Clinton continues to hold a lead in Ohio, although it has been reduced quite substantially over the past few weeks, and Obama has moved slightly ahead of her in Texas, though this race is very tight overall. Winning one of two may not be good enough for her to claim that she is still in a good position to continue on and win the nomination. She will have stopped Obama's winning streak in this scenario, but winning one major contest in a month, with the next major contest not for one and a half more months, may seem like too little too late. President Clinton has said in campaign speeches recently that voters in Ohio and Texas must come out and deliver for his wife, or else she can't be the Democratic nominee. This seems to clearly indicate that a split decision in a race that's quickly getting away from Hillary Clinton will not do enough to turn the primary season around in her favor. She will surely have a harder decision to make about whether or not to drop out than she would if she ends up losing both contests, since she was once again victorious in a major state, but the chorus of major Democrats will most likely be loud and unrelenting, urging her to end her campaign as soon as possible. They have, in fact, already begun to express this sentiment, as the New York Times writes today about those who have already come out, many on Sunday morning talk shows, to discuss how Clinton must leave the race if she is unsuccessful on Tuesday. Governor Bill Richardson said that "D-Day is Tuesday" and that, for the sake of party unity and victory over Senator McCain, whoever has the "clear lead" after that day should be the nominee. Senator Dick Durbin said there must be a "measurable change" on Tuesday in order for Clinton to remain in the race. And Senator John Kerry commented that "Hillary Clinton has to win a big victory in both Ohio and Texas" if she wants to have any real chance of winning the nomination. It may not be an immediate decision for Senator Clinton, given how much she has achieved and how long she has fought, but the expectation is that under this scenario, she will not press on with her campaign into April in Pennsylvania.
Scenario 3: Hillary loses both Ohio and Texas.
This, undoubtedly, would lead to Senator Clinton's suspension of her campaign, it would have to be assumed. This would mean that Clinton had now lost 13 contests in a row (or possibly even more, given the two other states that are also voting on Tuesday), and nothing would be on her side--not money, not momentum, not the calendar, and not uncommitted Democrats. It would almost certainly be time for her to drop out of the race and rally behind Senator Obama. Her chances of catching up to Senator Obama in terms of pledged delegates selected through primaries and caucuses would be impossible, and it would be impossible to see Super Delegates interested in coming to her rescue at this point, as they would be going against the will of the majority of voters and states. Leading Democrats, like those mentioned in the New York Times article, would be out in full force to urge an end to the race for the nomination and Clinton's exit, if Clinton did not first call it quits on her own, seemingly within the first 48 hours after Tuesday night's results. This would be the end of the road for her campaign.
What do you think Senator Clinton is most likely to do after Tuesday if she wins just one of these major contests? How will she go about leaving the race, and when? And what kind of story will it be if she does manage to win both Ohio and Texas?
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