Super Tuesday II: The Beginning of the End?

This coming Tuesday will mark the second largest delegate day of the primary season, behind only "Super Tuesday" of a month ago, as 444 delegates will be decided (or 11% of the total number of delegates). It's undeniably a major moment in the primary campaign, and, as has become clear over the past few weeks, it has to be a major turning point for Hillary Clinton if she has any chance of gaining the Democratic nomination for President. The scene is set for one of several possible scenarios to occur:

Scenario 1: Hillary wins both Ohio and Texas.
In this scenario, Hillary is able to stop Barack Obama's 11-contest winning streak and reclaim the momentum of the primary season. She is also able to correctly claim that she has won almost every major state that has held a contest thus far, on both coasts, and states that will be key to the election of a Democrat in November. Her campaign will gain new life, new questions will be raised about Obama's ability to seal the deal, and the race will move on to the remaining smaller March contests, as well as the upcoming votes in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. This is a scenario that shows that Democrats still have significant doubts about Senator Obama and his ability to lead, and this is the scenario that Republicans would like the most, given how it would lead to a more drawn-out contest for the Democratic nomination and the chance to campaign directly against Senator McCain. Hidden in this scenario, however, is the real possibility that Clinton may "win" Texas by getting more votes overall than Obama, but may lose the delegate race in the state due to how and where the delegates are allocated, including the fact that Texas uses a caucus to allocate many of its delegates. Therefore, "winning" Texas may not be a victory for her campaign overall and the race for the nomination, unless she is able to spin the story in her favor as a result of getting the most votes in these two major contests. And even if she wins both contests outright, she still may not be able to significantly close the delegate gap between herself and Senator Obama, but at least she earns the right to fight on.

Scenario 2: Hillary wins Ohio, loses Texas.
Looking at the most recent polls in both states, this scenario, for the time being, appears to be the most likely. Clinton continues to hold a lead in Ohio, although it has been reduced quite substantially over the past few weeks, and Obama has moved slightly ahead of her in Texas, though this race is very tight overall. Winning one of two may not be good enough for her to claim that she is still in a good position to continue on and win the nomination. She will have stopped Obama's winning streak in this scenario, but winning one major contest in a month, with the next major contest not for one and a half more months, may seem like too little too late. President Clinton has said in campaign speeches recently that voters in Ohio and Texas must come out and deliver for his wife, or else she can't be the Democratic nominee. This seems to clearly indicate that a split decision in a race that's quickly getting away from Hillary Clinton will not do enough to turn the primary season around in her favor. She will surely have a harder decision to make about whether or not to drop out than she would if she ends up losing both contests, since she was once again victorious in a major state, but the chorus of major Democrats will most likely be loud and unrelenting, urging her to end her campaign as soon as possible. They have, in fact, already begun to express this sentiment, as the New York Times writes today about those who have already come out, many on Sunday morning talk shows, to discuss how Clinton must leave the race if she is unsuccessful on Tuesday. Governor Bill Richardson said that "D-Day is Tuesday" and that, for the sake of party unity and victory over Senator McCain, whoever has the "clear lead" after that day should be the nominee. Senator Dick Durbin said there must be a "measurable change" on Tuesday in order for Clinton to remain in the race. And Senator John Kerry commented that "Hillary Clinton has to win a big victory in both Ohio and Texas" if she wants to have any real chance of winning the nomination. It may not be an immediate decision for Senator Clinton, given how much she has achieved and how long she has fought, but the expectation is that under this scenario, she will not press on with her campaign into April in Pennsylvania.

Scenario 3: Hillary loses both Ohio and Texas.
This, undoubtedly, would lead to Senator Clinton's suspension of her campaign, it would have to be assumed. This would mean that Clinton had now lost 13 contests in a row (or possibly even more, given the two other states that are also voting on Tuesday), and nothing would be on her side--not money, not momentum, not the calendar, and not uncommitted Democrats. It would almost certainly be time for her to drop out of the race and rally behind Senator Obama. Her chances of catching up to Senator Obama in terms of pledged delegates selected through primaries and caucuses would be impossible, and it would be impossible to see Super Delegates interested in coming to her rescue at this point, as they would be going against the will of the majority of voters and states. Leading Democrats, like those mentioned in the New York Times article, would be out in full force to urge an end to the race for the nomination and Clinton's exit, if Clinton did not first call it quits on her own, seemingly within the first 48 hours after Tuesday night's results. This would be the end of the road for her campaign.

What do you think Senator Clinton is most likely to do after Tuesday if she wins just one of these major contests? How will she go about leaving the race, and when? And what kind of story will it be if she does manage to win both Ohio and Texas?