Monday, January 28, 2008

"Florida, Florida, Florida"

After all the fanaticizing about a brokered convention for the GOP, tomorrow’s republican primary in Florida looks to be the deciding contest. This race was supposed to be “fluid” but in a few hours it is going to be settled and it’s the democrats who will be left fighting it out at least until Super Tuesday (February Fifth). Fred Thompson did not win South Carolina. Rudy Guliani’s firewall is not working. Mike Huckabee is old news. If you are a registered republican in Florida, you now have the opportunity to play God. Mitt Romney has a ton of money and the support of the conservative talk radio constituency and the people who used to support Mike Huckabee. John McCain has the support of party moderates (the people who used to support Rudy) and members of the republican establishment who are looking ahead at the general election. If John McCain wins tomorrow, he will have broken through and won a primary without the support of independent voters. This will allow him to raise some serious money, and it would force Sean Hanity and Rush Limbaugh to walk it off and support the senator from Arizona. If Mitt Romney wins, he will be unstoppable because he has so much money and such a well run organization, and his opponent will be crippled by the fact that he can’t win a closed republican primary. Fellow Trojan, Cindy McCain seems to think her husband’s campaign is finished if he doesn’t take the Sunshine state.

2 comments:

Andy said...

If he wins Florida, I think McCain will become the clear Republican frontrunner afterwards. His wife is wrong, I think he still has a shot if he loses. He's leading in national polls and other state polls. I think Giuliani's constituency will support McCain rather than Huckabee or Romney once Giuliani loses Florida and bows out of the race.

Romney's possible Florida win will not be enough to create the momentum he needs to win the nomination.

Dr. Demographics said...

as a native Floridian, let me say that teh voters in the Sunshine State are what puts "the da" in Florida. They're not so smart!