Votes Will Speak for Themselves

And then there were two. John Edwards' departure from the primaries leaves the race for the Presidential nomination down to Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. In the narrow contest between the two, securing Edwards votes could provide a valuable advantage in the polls. Political analysts believe that Edwards supporters will lean towards Obama, due to their similar political viewpoints. However, both candidates have been trying to reach out to Edwards and know how powerful his endorsement could be.

Yet there are other issues that could factor into who gets the votes. As much as people, especially Obama, have tried to stray away from race, the issue has been unavoidable. Much of Obama's South Carolina victory was attributed to large volumes of Black voters, but polls show he won across all demographics, including gender, except for seniors over 65 and Whites 30 and above. Although he had nowhere near as much success in Florida, my point is that he still has a universal appeal.

Tellingly, the ONLY demographic in which Edwards won was among Whites 30 and above (he tied the 60+ers with Clinton.) Obama was last in those categories.

I am nowhere near a political scientist so I know I could be simplifying this: looking at the numbers alone, we could believe that a majority of White voters would vote for Clinton because she came in second in that category (and has beat Obama in that demographic throughout the primaries). However, ideal-wise, Edwards voters parallel more closely to Obama. Where will the Edwards votes go?

In a situation like this, I believe media coverage and framing will certainly play a role for these undecided voters. If the media focuses on ideals, viewpoints, and politics, I believe that voters may be more inclined to vote for the candidate they most closely align with. However, if this becomes a campaign about race (which I do not think it has too much save for the Martin Luther King comment), the results could turn out much differently.

Ultimately, the votes will speak for themselves.

Obama Victory Speech

I will make sure to use prominent speeches from all of the candidates, but so far it is Senator Obama's speeches that are gaining greater attention. His SC victory speech was also well-received. What do you think?

South Carolina exit polls follow-up

Lots of news coming out of the South Carolina Democratic Party. If the surprise news from Nevada was Obama's endorsements not translating into voters - it looks like the story in (the other) SC was Obama's ability to build a much stronger voter block. Lots of folks are now reviewing the exit polls to try to explain how the scope of this magntiude was missed. A couple of good reads are David Paul Kuhn of Politico.com and Mark Blumenthal at Pollster.com.

South Carolina Democratic Primary

After reading CNN’s article, Steady to strong turnout as South Carolina votes, to which CNN's Peter Hamby, Alexander Mooney, Bill Schneider, Suzanne Malveaux and Jessica Yellin contributed, it was discussed that “blacks hold the key to victory” in South Carolina. It also states that Obama will gain legitimate standing with the Democratic Party if he wins the black vote by a solid margin. But here is my question: why is it so crucial for him to have the support of the black community, especially when he won in Iowa where there are virtually only white voters. Shouldn’t the focus be on getting the support of various communities so that you are representative of the country as a whole? Maybe I’m too idealistic, but why just because he is black should he have the support of the black community, and furthermore, why since Hillary is a female should she have the support of the female population in order to validate their run for the White House. Each of these communities is equally crucial to both of the candidates, not just the ones that mirror each candidate’s exterior.