Delegate Predictions anyone?

It looks like the rise of the 'competition' model of covering the campaigns alongside the rise of web-based information has made predicting campaigns even more detailed. A reader at Andew Sullivan's website combined tracking polls with delegate counts and produced a very interesting set of predictions for Tuesday's voting. I am not sure if these polls necessary match the majority of polls I have seen, but it is still an interesting project.

Much Ado About Nothing?

It's an exciting time to follow politics, for sure. But it's also a confusing one. As the primary period approaches the crucial "Super Tuesday" voting and millions of Americans prepare to simultaneously cast their votes for their party's general election candidate, there's one large, glaring, yet strangely familiar figure that must be dealt with first: Florida.

For Republicans, the stakes are clear: win Florida, and you, most likely, become the "front runner" for your party's nomination. With McCain and Romney, the best performers thus far in the race, virtually tied in current polls in Florida, a win would be huge. Not only would they be victorious in a "winner take all" contest and collect all of the at-large delegates, but this victory, coming exactly a week before "Super Tuesday," would give the winner huge momentum and, presumably, a good number of new donors that could give them the edge in those crucial contests the next week. It's clearly a big deal.

But what does Florida mean for the democrats? Well, that depends on who you ask. Because of the state's decision to move its primary up before Super Tuesday, the Democratic Party punished the state by taking away its delegates. The candidates, therefore, agreed to follow the rules of this punishment by not campaigning in the state. There will be an election for the democrats on Tuesday, despite all this, but really, who cares?

Clinton, that's who. While Obama is now focusing on Super Tuesday states and passing Florida by, because of the state's temporary status as a meaningless contest, Clinton realizes that there is a great opportunity here to recapture the spotlight, with her name still on the ballot, and claim victory in a key general election battleground right before Super Tuesday. Even before votes were cast in South Carolina on Saturday, Hillary Clinton, presumably expecting a large defeat in SC, had already begun to try to shift the focus to the Sunshine State. She even says she'll be there Tuesday night as the results come in, knowing she'll, most likely, easily claim victory.

Why this is so interesting is that Florida, the star of the 2000 election, and key to any presidential general election victory, is being treated like an afterthought by Obama, as he was told to do by his party, and Clinton is using this unique opportunity to her advantage. It's even been said that the Republicans have loved watching this recent show of "Florida-dissing" by the democrats, as come November, democratic voters who felt they may have been ignored in the primary period may not be as enthusiastic about showing up at the polls and supporting Obama, or Clinton, for that matter. Clinton sees both this danger, and the possibility of a large, symbolic victory over Obama, and she is ready to capitalize on this Tuesday night. So what does Florida really mean for this election? We'll soon find out.

Link to article

Thanks and some recent links

Thanks to everyone who has taken the leap in the first few days. Special thanks to Richmond Communication Professor Paul Achter for his 'Its the economy' post from Friday.

I will be going over the technological medium again in class tomorrow. I would like to work with everyone to get you up and posting in week 2 of the course.

In the interim, here are some quick reads and links to keep you current on the communicative nature of the campaign:

• Peter Applebome of the New York Times asks "Is Eloquence Overrated?" and gets some interesting perspectives from prominent Communication scholars.
  
• Barack Obama made a push for 'unity' to take its place alongside 'change' as a crucial campaign theme. His speech at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, GA is an interesting effort to shift the recent campaign conversation among the Democrats. Watch the speech via c-span (using media player or read it at his website.
• Some of you noted this theme already (nice job djc), but how do delegate counts 'matter' alongside 'winning a primary or caucus?' CNN tries to make sense of Clinton's 'win' in Nevada and it opens the door to Gretchen's question of a brokered convention. As we learn how this new primary season works it will be interesting if the attention given to these primaries doesn't provide as much closure as folks anticipated. This is certainly apparent in Romney's delegate-heavy strategy.
• Still lots of divergent trends on the GOP side. Giuliani continues to struggle in the polls, despite some new ads that have caused a stir. When Chuck Norris is getting a good deal of coverage, it may be a sign that there is a long way to go before picking a nominee.
• Finally, be sure to take a quick look at the reaction from tonight's Democratic debate in South Carolina.

See you tomorrow.